In the 3-6+" area don't be surprised to see over 6" but also don't be surprised to see just 3" The mesoscale set up is going to set up banding that trains over the same are resulting in some high amounts. The latest SREF guidance wants to edge that a little more NW and I caved in a little bit by extending the 3-6+" area more NW. But I didn't go too far because I think the best set up will be somewhere where I have highlighted.
I see arguments for this area being more NW and SE. The radiational cooling tonight could complicate the exact spot a little bit by messing up the thermal fields. the thinking behind this is that precip starts as snow further east than modeled and stays snow shifting the rnsn line to the se and best forcing se. However, I do not expect this to be a major shift (aka keep a close eye Philly and South of Trenton).
The stronger system might argue for more NW movement of the dynamics like SREFalluded to but if this were to occur I still like my dark blue shading regardless.
This map cannot be worse than the eagles...I hope :)
Here is a nowcasting blog to hold you over until my nowcasting starts after the eagles game!:
-----------------PREVIOUS BLOG AT 6:50PM-----------
It is that time...
Before I show you the map, Important things to know:
1) UPDATING map at 11pm with nowcast
2) Basing this forecast off trends and adjusting favorable models to those trends. It is a lot harder than it sounds!
3) This storm will overachieve for snow lovers in some areas and be a disappointment in others as always.
Banding is going to be likely right along the rn/sn line extending to portions N and W with the storngest frontogenetic forcing. However, one of the wildcards I have been talking about is the potential for this low to develop closer to the coast and be stronger! This would allow for a longer duration of the precipitation.
Models have hinted at some convective instability aloft mainly on GFS, but other guidance is highlighting slantwise convection. This would only be possible if this system were to slow down and develop more. The ingredients are certainly present for such phenomena.
First thing to note is the location shaded in blue (at this time) is very strong lifting and on the anticyclonic side of the jet streak in the northern stream. This not only leads to the stronger lifting but provides weak intertial stability...
And also reflected on the SREF here:
Why is this important?
This could allow for a few hours of 1-2"hr rates of snow training over a particular area. I bring this up because of guidance hinting at a stronger coastal and the fact the NAM has shown an inverted trough across a similar area. This could lead to a snow jackpot somewhere in my highest totals.
-Southern stream is more active and convection will get going shortly over E TX/AR/LA. This could continue to lead to a more amplified set up resulting in a chain reaction of deeper trough and stronger coastal low. This could bring more cold air into the situation making me bust in areas of rain.
- Dynamic cooling and melting induced cooling. I factored these two in as best I could but with models adjusting it will most likely need to be adjusted again!
Jeff I am from the PHL area and I am frustrated too. I call it like I see it and people like you are not happy. But those who look at the bigger picture know that I was the only one to nail quite a few areas northeast last storm that were predicted 0" and got over 5".
I am an expert in New England stuck in a slump worse than Ryan Howard in PHL. I will be on eventually.
Sgt Snow, No one questioned the depth of his blogs or the amount of research he puts in. That being said, his forecasts when it comes to snow are usually way off the mark. He called for 3-6 inches and its doubtful KPHL will even see a trace of snow with this storm. The previous storm was more of the same as well as last season's hype-storms. We need to be more conservative with our snow estimates.
Jeff, Mike D is not one to forcast with his heart. His blogs are some of the mos in depth in terms of supporting his postion. He may well be the most accurate forcaster on Rob's site since he joined. He doesn't own a "big daddy hat" he just calls them like he see's them.
Mike D., No offense but it looks in my opinion that the snow totals you predicted were way too robust. Most media outlets were calling for an inch max for KPHL and you called for 3-6? There wasn't any type of prediction from you that the temperature would rise overnight. I highly doubt that KPHL and S&E will be one snowflake from this storm. I also seem to remember an overagressive snow total for the last storm after Sandy. We all love snow but we need to forecast with our head and not our heart.
Blue Blaster you are correct temps are rising quickly. Marcus if you click on NWs or accuweather.com as of 12:40am temp at phl is up to 38deg, chadds ford 38deg, media 38deg, and swedesboro 38deg---these are official tremps...not back yard thermometers...lol.... as twc and nws said temps will climb with the cloulds rolling in as they are:( this is why rob's forecast is probably 100% correct and snow fall totals should be minor along i95
Just the eagles off mike, sgtsnow go home, my fantasy football QB made the birds defense look like children. I told my buddy he's gonna put up 40 points in fantasy football, he's 30 yards away from hitting 40 points :). 2 years in a row the eagles are predicted to goto the Super Bowl lol.
Clouds just now moving in. Precip is still most likely 6 hours away. Ugh this is gonna drive me nuts haha. Glad I'm not working tonight so I don't stay up watching radar night. Ill actually just sleep.
Nice update mike. Ill buy you a beer if this thing slides the snow/heavier precip east like the same way the last nor Easter did. That's be perfect for us mike haha.
I'm not expecting no more then an inch of snow for swedesboro. But well see. It's below freezing and want expected to get here. It's not often we get a nice radiational cooling situation so hopefully it goes in our favor.
Good Point Blueblaster, that's exactly what NWS and TWC are saying the temps will initially drop like a rock with radiational cooling and actually rise at the clouds roll in and accompanying storm and front. They say snow or mixed precip will be all snow overnight and early am and change to rain over most of philly metro late morning excpet for the far north west.. t to inch philly immed nw to east......with the jackpot of 2 to 3 well north and west..this is very similar to Rob's map..
That Bryce Brown may really be something at running back!