The canadian model has backed off the Chicago snow storm idea and has now shifted east and is not far from showing a significant snow storm for the Northern Middle Atlantic and the Northeast.
The Canadian model misplaces the low earlier on at 114hrs and positions it too far north. The upper level pattern would suggest a placement of the low pressure system in the yellow shading. This would lead to a further south track and more cold air and more snow!
The GFS is still all over the place with the latest run pumping up the ridge again slighlty from previous 12z run. As a result the low track shifts south and does provide some snow for the Northeast but mainly in NY and New England.
Below are the ensembles from the GFS showing strong disagreement. Tracks range from well inland to the coast to south and out to sea. Few show nice snow event making it to the major cities.
To top off the 00z suite of models we have another weird solution from the European. This model has not been its usual self with this system as it is bouncing all around. Now it is shearing out the system and not developing a low to late in the period with a low offshore. Result is no precip!
-Waiting for the Ensembles to see where we stand (sometime around noon I will post on Euro ensembles)
- CMC has best looking upper level set up compared to actual tropical forcing/pattern.
- GFS is flip flopping with the Euro. GFS is slowly coming back into the game with latest run, but still needs to make adjustments to upper level pattern over Canada.
- Rain to snow is possible in the N Middle Atlantic and Northeast on two of the models above, but Euro shows nothing! Hope is still alive for a bigger wintry solution!
12z cmc is pretty close to a snowstorm for the cities by about 50 miles or so. At this point though its most likely going to be rain for everyone 95 south and east. Unless we can get the storm further east like the last snowstorm then that would benefit us this time!
Lol either way still 20-24 model runs to go this is gonna change immensely.
This one lookin more like rain at this point. Strange how we get this warm surge of air right before the storm hits. So reminiscent of last year lol. Need this trough to dig more into the south/southeast states if we wanna get some snow around Philly from this... Well see though.. Nice blog mike love the updates.