The GFS is in and it has been going towards a solution inland with rain for most. The difference between this solution and the previous ones is the Western US. The big ridge is now weakened to almost nothing and as a result the system does not dig as much. This quicker eastward motion allows it to turn the corner quicker. MJO going into phase 1 in late November is usually a signal for some more ridging in the Western US and more of an amplification in the Eastern US. We will see the GFS adjust in future runs but for now it is warm...
Last night the European model has shifted drastically to an out to sea solution with a low developing not until well offshore. It has made a step towards the correct solution but now it is east of the European ensembles. The closed off trough over the Canadian Maritimes blocks up the flow and prevents our system from moving north and to the west of us. I believe a solution like this will occur, but since last nights run it has trended faster with the s/w number 1. As a result the development occurs closer to the coast but far enough away to prevent a snow event. But as this continue to comes west it might show a rather impressive snow event for portions of the Northeast and Northern Middle Atlantic.
-GFS Ensembles do not support the Operational run
-European is making steps toward a solution that makes sense with the tropical forcing/pattern and that is a snow event in the Northeast and portions of the Northern Middle Atlantic.
Well apparently, the northeast is supposed to have a 20 - 30% more snow this year than normal... And yet it is almost December and we have only had one notable snow event. I think it would make sense for this to become a wintry weather event for MA. Temps for Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the mid to upper thirties, and nighttime lows around freezing. I am going to expect to see snow with this one. And I think noaa should embrace TWC's naming of winter storms.