The GFS does a complete shift from the 00z run and it matches our thinking perfectly! Only problem now is we need the GFS to catch on to some smaller details as we get closer to give us a better indication on how much snow and the rain and snow line. Right now we will be dealing with warmer air but with a developing low to our south and a lot of cold air to the north and west...this could get interesting!
The old GFS run shows the ridge off the West coast extending way too far north. This does not make much sense to me in this pattern and where the pattern is going. The end result is a low well to our north and west. The ridge allows the system to dig further south further west and as it intensifies nothing is around to prevent it from shooting north. Now the latest GFS...
The latest GFS does not have that ridge, instead its a more progressive pattern with the ridge pushing east and less amped. However, it allows our system to dig southward to the east more resulting in a more eastward track. With the progressive flow we throw more arctic energy ahead of it preventing it from heading west of the I-95 Corridor. The GFS does have problems handling this energy with the elongated trough extending from the Polar Vortex. But it is clear the placement of the low is almost correct (verbatim too far north and west compared to actual PVA/diffluence) but it does not intensify it too much. As a result we are warmer with rain. But not far from a snowy look on this model!
The old European model run is well to the north and west of the major cities and does not bring much snow anywhere as most of the precip is post frontal on the map above. This means the cold air came in after the precip so that is rain in much of the qpf above.
The new European model run is well south of the previous run and it goes back to the same reason as the GFS. Being much more progressive and shifting that ridge axis to the east. As a result the low comes through to our south and east and offshore. I think the models are having a tough time with the elongated trough axis. If this is the case I still think we see enough conservation of vorticity in the trough axis to support a stronger low, but if the trend continues we might see a colder and slower solution with the arctic energy heading further east ahead of the system. As we have seen in previous runs, but the trend is great for a snow event in the Northeast/N Middle Atlantic.
Trend continues to increase for a snow event for portions of the Northern Middle Atlantic and Northeast. We want to see some consistency in the model runs before pointing out details.
Have a Happy Thanksgiving and don't obsess over the weather models (that is our job) will have an update out around 3PM tomorrow.
I finally get to see the destruction today first hand from sandy. Boy it's just sad how bad they got it. Sandy hook in north jersey is just destroyed was up there bringing food I wish them all the best.
Enjoy your Thanksgiving with your family and friends. I suggest you skip.the afternoon runs tomorrow to take time for yourself. Then we can all obsess over leftovers on Friday. A special.thanks to the.military and their families for.the sacrafices you make every day so we can all enjoy or basic freedom and our families.