The GFS continues the idea of a significant storm system off the Eastern US. The model does bring snow to the big cities but the heaviest snow stays north where New England is the jackpot on this run. The GFS is rather generous for our area verbatim as it should be warmer and slightly further north with the sfc low but details like that are not big 180hrs out. Also subtle changes which we think will occur will impact the GFS.
Two things I point out above are the placement of the sfc low and the arctic s/w. Two are very important in determining who gets rain and who gets snow. To me it is becoming obvious that the GFS is realizing it cannot drive a system north into the arctic air that easy. This happens a lot on the GFS and should not allow the GFS to come further north with this system. And it shows us a snow event is becoming likely for portions of the Northern Middle Atlantic to the Northeast. How much snow? Too early to tell but could be significant.
The arctic s/w comes into play here because if it speeds up it will keep our system from coming north and keep it on an eastward heading. This would put areas slightly further south in an extended period of snow from overrunning with some coastal enhancement. This is possible because we explain the pattern does not support a big ridge in the Pacific into W Canada/Alaska. The end result would be a faster arctic jet.
Most of the general comments above are directed toward the Northeast. But the key here is ensembles are beginning to come around to the eastward adjustment, but still have quite a few against it.
Big upper level low NE of HI (#2) pumps up the ridge (#3) and slows down the arctic s/w (#4). The end result is a warmer solution with a northward track of the low resulting in a rainy solution for many. The Euro has a phase 8 look to it in terms of forcing from the MJO which is reasonable, but all ensembles suggest a quick increase into phase 1. Either way both phases do not favor an amplification of a ridge as far north as the Euro and GFS have currently.
The phasing of the #2 and #1 in the following frame is tough to believe since both features do not support phasing. The bowling bowl vortex and fast PAC jet. So it is clear euro is having some problems also.
-Threat is increasing for snow event in Northern Middle Atlantic/Northeast
Each run of the GFS keeps getting warmer and warmer. The NAO/AO indexes are starting to look like they want to go positive in the beginning of December while the PNA remains stubbornly negative. I'm starting to think that we may be waiting awhile before real winter begins.
Long time reader on this site, but 1st time poster. I think I speak for a lot of people and many don't reply to you because everyone wants to know how much we are going to get. The IMBYard questions this far out are a little too much on every article. At this point, people are just pointing out the possibilities of a storm, telling us and giving us hope for a big storm. Once we're 3-5 days out, you'll see the pro mets and others showing thoughts for certain areas, including Syracuse and many other areas. We all love people posting, and reading the comments, I don't discourage that, but It is way to early for amounts, that has to wait until a few days out. Not trying to offend you, as we all want to know how much, but honestly, no one knows until it is right around the corner. Let's just enjoy the fact that someone (hopefully everyone) gets involved on these snow storms.