Models are all over the place for the system coming in the days 7-10 range. The general consensus right now is the storm will pass to the west and bring us some rain, but the models are having a very tough time. The differences between the euro ensembles and the euro are fairly large and the the GFS changes every 6hrs!
Below are 4 ensemble members from the GFS at 00z, this is the only member showing a snow storm but the key here is to see why it does it:
The third member is the one showing a big snow storm in this run. The major differences are the location of the ridging in the Pacific and the displacement of the polar vortex. The southward displacement of the PV prevents the storm from turning north into the Midwest. I highlighted the trough axis in all members but the west coast trough idea is very sketchy to me. Does not fit the pattern and the tropical forcing argues strongly against it.
Trough going around the PV and is setting up to take a perfect track for a big snowstorm. This member has the most reasonable representation in the Gulf of Alaska giving the current SST configuration and the expected tropical forcing. However, it is bullish with the negative AO and that is the main reason why we see this snow storm threat on the member.
MJO has a weak signal right now but has a phase 6-7 look to the convection across the tropics. This matches up perfectly with the Euro Ensembles from yesterday which show us heading into a phase 1 right during the storm time period:
Below is a composite for November MJO in Phase 1:
A lot of things are not going to match up with this composite...the positive west pacific oscillation will be incorrect along with the west based NAO. But notice the lower heights across the southeast which would favor a better storm track for cold and snow into portions of the Northeast. The composites into December also show a similar solution.
EURO DAY 10 ENSEMBLE VS OPERATIONAL
-Late November storm is showing up on models but the track will shift a lot in the next several days.
-Potential does exist for a snowstorm in the Northeast, as several factors suggest a correction to the east with this system. But how far east will determine where this threat sets up!
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Looks like no snow today, maybe a little rain. Forcasters last night on TV said rain/snow start 3am. 6:30am now and nothing yet. After today will be another warm up. Looks like we may have to wait till January for the white stuff!!!!