What is the NAO? (Greenland Block)

If you are not hardcore weather you may be asking yourself what the heck is the NAO and why is this weather signal so important to winter storms east of the Mississippi?  

 

It's like a traffic cop of weather and when this traffic cop in Greenland slows down the weather pattern it allows for storms to develop along the east coast and it allows allows the cold air to hang around a bit longer to feed into these nor'easter beasts.

 

So now you may be asking does that mean less snow and cold for the winter ahead ? Well it all depends on where you live. We talked about this in our winter outlook and told you it's not one factor that decides how cold or snowy a winter will get...it's the combo and teleconnections of all of them that brings snowstorms & cold weather.

 

el nino

It could not resist...just kiddin on this but a funny cartoon on El Nino. So with El nino not a MAJOR factor what are we left with for the next few months ?

 

Well the one thing that will set this winter is the big dip in the NAO or North American Oscillation. This is known as the Greenland Block.

 

greenaland block

 

This is how we see the block now and at the end of DECEMBER. So what does that means for snowstorms ? Simply put...higher risk for snow along the east and maybe even the south under the right conditions.

 

NAO   Screen Shot 2012-11-07 at 10.53.30 PM

 Screen Shot 2012-12-08 at 9.59.18 AM

 

 

The Arctic Oscillation is a pool of Arctic Air that comes down south when there is not a lock on the Arctic air stating north.

 

negative ao

 

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Blog started by rob guarino , on 192 days ago
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Mark D Levitt
Snow....we'll try
192 days ago
 
Snow
I just want this artic air to drop south in the northeast before Christmas. All I ask is for a white Christmas. Or at least some snow before so we can get in the spirit
192 days ago
 
rob guarino
Krista...

If this NAO AO index remains NYC will get a decent winter of snow...that's for sure
217 days ago
 
Krista
OH I HOPE NOT

Last years 'non winter' & too early spring was dreadful.

I hope NYC gets a real winter

K

217 days ago
 
Phillywhiteout
@Weatherman71, I'm going to respectfully disagree. I would like to take a bet that Philly will only get 6.2 inches this year. I agree that things seem eerily similar to last year(hurricanes,earthquakes and early season snowstorm), but the pattern is much different!

Last year, we had a weak to moderate La Nina while this year there is a neutral ENSO! Last fall the NAO was positive for most of the fall season(it was only negative for the freak snowstorm at the end of October). The NAO has been predominantly negative this fall. I know the NAO is going positive now, but there are already signs of the next nagative phase. My worry for winter is in the Pacific! It seems that the PNA has been negative for much of the fall and is forecasted to be negative for the next couple of weeks. That could be a problem for snowlovers!

I think we are looking at a pretty normal winter this year. Temps will probably average out to about normal. November has a good chance of ending up below normal because we are so far below normal for the month so far. I think average temps will be the rule and slightly above average snowfall forecast makes sense at this point. As others have said, it depends how negative the NAO wants to be this winter, but early indications suggest that it will be much more negative than last winter(not saying much there).
221 days ago
 
Kevin Reilly
It is all about timing here with this past storm. The unfortunate thing for those on the West Side of The Delaware River in PA was that the NAO block broke down just enough to allow this most recent Winter Storm Athena to escape to our NE.

Rob I totally agree with you with El Nino and LA Nina out we turn most of our attention to the NAO for blocking.

This will be the year that the NAO controls our winter and we will find out over the next two to three weeks in my opinion exactly what kind of a winter it will be.

I am betting on an average to above average snowfall this year. I do believe 30" of snow is not a stretch especially is our NAO goes to negative 1.50 and 2.00 again.
222 days ago
 
Marcus wild
I did but 75 miles east of Atlantic city. This storm had an eye but went too Far East :(.
222 days ago
 
Lauren
Marcus, didn't you post a prediction about a 980 mb storm with an eye two months ago? Came a little too early I guess lol. Got any other predictions?!
222 days ago
 
Marcus wild
Weatherman it's going to be in the 60's for 2-3 days and then drop back to normal temps for November. There's no "blowtorch" anywhere.
222 days ago
 
Marcus wild
Cold air is really start to fill into western Canada and that blizzard is making for some nice low Canadian latitude snow cover. Last years snow cover was pretty awful. Lows are already going negative out west in Montana. Cold air shouldn't be a problem this year. It was trapped in Europe last year.
222 days ago
 
rob guarino
snow cover is key to the winter ahead to make for a bigger polar vortex coming into the USA. Solar max I'm not an expert on but it's worth looking into. Thanks Jack
222 days ago
 
Jack Mastrianni
What effect do people think the solar max (albeit a weak one) will have? Usually a solar max increases the zonal index. Also, lots of cold air will build in central Canada over the next couple of weeks and there will be a good snowcover there thanks to the storm over the next few days.
222 days ago
 
Paul Ferguson
I agree, Weatherman. I am hoping we can break some records this winter with the warm temps ( maybe 80 in December or January). It might be that Sandy and the last storm sets up the pattern similar to last year when the Halloween storm blew through and it basically blew out the remainder of our winter weather ( no major snow and above normal temps). El Nino will play a much less significant role as described above. So basically, blocking and the NAO will be bigger players and unfortunately you cannot predict those indicators any further out than 2 weeks. It will make long range predictions virtually impossible this year. So let the guessing begin!!!!
222 days ago
 
weatherman71
I'm calling for 6.2 inches of snow at the airport this year. We are in an almost exact pattern as this time last year, and when you look long range, it blowtorch city, with occasional cool spells. Luckily, yesterdays total of a trace at the airport won't affect my seasonal total.
222 days ago
 
Lauren
Hopefully there will be lots of things to track this season...especially between December and April so I can distract myself until my new baby arrives!
222 days ago
 
John Giampetro
Well said Rob.. and I think we are going to have the key blocking to get the major winter weather events as we head into winter. You can clearly see based on the AO and NAO charts that they trend back to the negative later in November. It will be interesting if we match what happend in 2009-2010. Still, have to wait and see how this all plays out.
222 days ago
 
scoopy
Last winter was sad....
223 days ago
 
SgtSnow
I agree with you Marcus. Please no repeat of last year.
223 days ago
 
Marcus wild
Gfs shows the -NAO setting up out around the 17th as well as a storm system coming up from from southern Cali across the southern states and GoM then up the east coast. Something to keep an eye on could be another nor'easter in the making. Granted 10 days away, well see.
223 days ago
 
Marcus wild
Hope we get enough -NAO this year. Last year was just brutal.
223 days ago
 


 

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