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Honolulu Winter Outlook 2014-2015

Discussion started by robweather 1 month ago

Honolulu will see a very interesting winter ahead with the main influence coming from El Nino and the Southern Jet stream storm track. An El Nino track can bring both heavy rain and maybe some snow at the highest elevations of the highest peaks this winter.

We are gearing up for a moderate El Nino at this point. If we have a big southern storm track we will see above normal rainfall and even a bout of severe weather this winter.  El Nino winters can bring extreme weather with extreme weather month to month.  It's all about how big El Nino decides to become once we hit December, January and February.

 

YOUR LOCAL WINTER OUTLOOK  

THE LATEST EL NINO WATCH 2014

YOUR  SUMMER OUTLOOK 2014

 

Screen Shot 2014-04-07 at 5.34.10 PM

So we looked over the last 50 years of El Nino winters and 8 were weak El Nino's, 4 were a moderate El Nino and 7 years were classified as a strong El Nino. We are placing a good deal of our forecast on El Nino this winter simply due that we feel it will be a weak to moderate event.

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El NINO EARLY JUNE

It's going to be one of those "if you don't like the weather wait a minute" kind of winters. I expect to see thunderstorms, wind and warmth.

Other factors into our forecast are the usual NAO or North Atlantic Oscillation. The STJ or Sub Tropical Jet along with the Arctic Oscillation and PNA or Pacific North American Teleconnection.

Screen Shot 2014-04-03 at 5.08.15 PM

Honolulu Winter Summary

It is going to be WARM and wetter this winter. The warmest month will be December and the coldest in February. We expect to see no snow this winter but rainfall above average esp. in February. El Nino may show up late this winter..we'll see.

 

THIS WINTER WILL BE 0.0" SNOW

RAINFALL ABOVE NORMAL 

 

TEMPS NEAR NORMAL

MILD START DECEMBER

NORMAL JANUARY

A COOLER FEBRUARY

 

THE LATEST EL NINO WATCH 2014

YOUR  SUMMER OUTLOOK 2014

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