Good Evening

Severe Weather is back on the map for wednesday and thursday between texas and the southern plains and then in dixie alley . Hail and high winds along with tornadoes esp on thursday .

A southern flow will allow the moisture to get in place and at the surface esp on thursday a decent low level jet will be present

..SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGHING FORECAST TO EVOLVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS EXPECTED TO
   PERSIST THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND BEYOND.  THE MOST PROMINENT SHORT
   WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME APPEARS LIKELY TO BE IN THE
   PROCESS OF LIFTING IN NEGATIVELY TILTED FASHION ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AT 12Z THURSDAY.  MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS
   FEATURE WILL THEN CONTINUE PIVOTING AROUND AN ASSOCIATED DEEP
   LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONE MIGRATING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE
   UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.  WHILE A STRONG MID/UPPER JET
   ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST IN A BROAD CYCLONIC BELT
   ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RED RIVER VALLEY/OZARK PLATEAU AND MIDDLE
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
   IN A BELT ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH THE GULF COAST
   VICINITY.  WHILE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS MAY RISE ALONG AN AXIS NORTH OF
   AN INCREASINGLY PROMINENT CARIBBEAN HIGH CENTER...GUIDANCE REMAINS
   SUGGESTIVE THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
   ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION DURING
   THE DAY THURSDAY.
   
   IN MANY RESPECTS...THE FORECAST EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN
   REMAINS SIMILAR TO SOME THAT HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH CONSIDERABLE
   SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.  HOWEVER...AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE
   RIDGE...WHICH APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF
   THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH NOW SHIFTING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY...MAY MITIGATE THIS POTENTIAL.  IT IS BECOMING MORE OBVIOUS
   THAT A COOL/COLD AND STABLE SURFACE-BASED AIR MASS WILL BE
   ENTRENCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
   EARLY THURSDAY...AND IT MAY PROVE SLOW TO MODIFY.  MOST MODELS
   INDICATE THAT THE SUB 1000 MB SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS AT 12Z THURSDAY WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT REDEVELOPS
   NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH PARTS OF THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. 
   AND SECONDARY WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A SURFACE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
   TEXAS PROBABLY WILL REMAIN WEAK AND WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS EAST
   NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 
   STILL...MOISTENING AND DESTABILIZATION ABOVE THIS STABLE LAYER
   SHOULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND
   A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY STILL APPEARS TO EXIST FOR SEVERE BOUNDARY
   LAYER BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
   
   ...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
   LATEST MODEL DATA...INCLUDING THE NAM/SREF AND ECMWF...DO INDICATE
   RAPID BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING IS POSSIBLE BY MIDDAY THURSDAY
   ACROSS AT LEAST MUCH OF LOUISIANA AND ADJACENT WEST
   CENTRAL/SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI.  IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT
   PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL INCREASE UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THIS
   REGION...AS SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASE INTO THE MID 60S.  THIS IS
   EXPECTED TO OCCUR BENEATH INITIALLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   /700-500 MB IN EXCESS OF 8 DEGREES C PER KM/...WHICH MAY YIELD MIXED
   LAYER CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  IT IS BECOMING MORE
   UNCLEAR IF FORCING WILL MAINTAIN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A
   POTENTIALLY EVOLVING CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS THE REGION.  THE
   ENVIRONMENT MAY BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT...IN
   THE PRESENCE OF WIND PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR...AND LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS.  WHILE
   UNCERTAINTY MAY BE INCREASING A BIT...IT DOES NOT APPEAR COMPLETELY
   OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT PARAMETERS COULD COME IN PHASE TO SUPPORT
   ONE OR TWO LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
   TORNADOES ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOUISIANA INTO
   MISSISSIPPI.


Dean D Davison
Lead Forecaster 
Storm Surge LLC