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Tropical Storm Ernesto is here.
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Tropical Storm Ernesto was just upgraded at the 5pm report. As of this time there are Tropical Storm Warnings up for the PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
Current Conditions: 5:00 PM AST Thu Aug 2 AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.6 WEST. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE STORM SHOULD BE NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. |
Blog started by Kirk Kelly , on 320 days ago
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Pressures for tropical cyclones that are in the formative stages - especially when located closer to the Equator - are not a good way to guage the overall structure of the storm and wind speeds. With dry air entrainment in the NW - W quadrant of the storm, combined with westerly shears - winds are ddriven downward at higher speeds in the convective band that is forming closer to the core of the system. If you back away from thinking of this as a tropical storm or hurricane, and think of it as a cluster (albeit one trying to get organized) of T-storms - what we have is the equivalent of 'downburst' winds typical of MCS systems - NOT a pressure gradient dependent wind.
SteveG.
SteveG.
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