Tropical Depression 5 has formed in the Atlantic and will continue to progress Westward towards the Lesser Antilles. The Tropical Depression is still attached to the InterTropical Convevergence  Zone (ITCZ) but latest analysis shows this showing signs of leaving.  And if latest VIS/IR imagery is correct this could be a big problem for Tropical Depression as dry air entrainment and up to 30Kts of westerly shear on the northern side of TD could take its toll on the system.  Right now NHC expects this become Ernesto by tomorrow but it appears it will have to fight off a few unfavorable ingredients to achieve that status.

*Decrease in convection and pulsing of the convection 

*Strong shear over the northern part of TD 5.  Shear is from a trough extending down from an upper level low around 29N/44W.  

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