Convection has increased with Invest 99L and is expected to continue to develop. But as we noted yesterday it appears this will take a little bit longer to organize and will take a southern track through the Caribbean. Invest 99l is still attached to the ITCZ but as convection increases and it begins to push away it should develop into our next Tropical Depression. Even Though dry air and sinking motion dominates much of the Atlantic the path of Invest 99L has plenty of moisture to work with...most likely in response to the train of tropical waves paving the path with one wave well ahead of it.
Subtropical problems for the Eastern US Thursday???
Interesting development is possible off the Eastern US but we think the CMC model is WAY overdone and wrong. Is the CMC outcome possible? yes but very unlikely. A trough split occurring will allow this low to sit in the warm water off the Eastern US. If the CMC is right we could see some subtropical development.
We believe the NAM/GFS have a better shot of being correct. A much weaker low further offshore.