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New Jersey Winter Outlook 2014-2015 (Trenton, Camden, Jersey City, Paramus, Atlantic City, Newark)

Discussion started by robweather 2 months ago

New Jersey had a HUGE winter during 2013-2014 and depending on the exact track of El Nino and the Southern Jet Stream this could be another big one for the winter of 2014-2015. Several factors go into our forecast with the main one the size and power of El Nino. Here are the factors carving out the winter ahead.

So we looked over the last 50 years of El Nino winters and 5 were weak El Nino's, 8 were a moderate El Nino and 7 years were classified as a strong El Nino. We are placing a good deal of our forecast on El Nino this winter simply due that we feel it will be a moderate event. The new info below shows the world models leaning in that direction at this point.

EL NINO UPDATE 2014

Screen Shot 2014-06-24 at 10.12.47 PM

WHICH ANALOG YEARS DO WE SEE THAT

LOOK LIKE THE 2014-15 WINTER? 

Screen Shot 2014-06-24 at 10.41.24 PM

 

factors

STJ-Sub Tropical Jet steers the storm track for Low pressure systems

AO-Arctic Oscillation is the open and closed door for cold weather, also the polar Vortex

Click here for the daily AO

NAO-North Atlantic Oscillation is the Pedulum of storm tracks and cold air across the USA

Click here for the daily NAO

PNA-Pacific North American Connection is the steering pattern for storms from Alaska & the West

Click here for the daily PNA

 

THE NEW JERSEY WINTER AHEAD

TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL

SNOWFALL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL

Snw DaysPlaceAverageThis Winter
10.6 Hightstown 22.7" 26.3"
  7.7 Lambertville 18.5" 22.1"
14.5 Newark & Elizabeth 28.6" 33.0"
13.5 New Brunswick 28.4" 32.5"
  8.3 Plainfield 22.8" 24.8"
12.8 Somerville 27.6" 31.3"
  8.0 Wanaque Reservoir Dam 19.4" 22.7"

 

South Jersey

Snw DysPlaceAverageThis Winter
  8.7 Atlantic City-Sea Isle-O.C. 16.5" 27.4"
  3.3 Beach Haven, Brant Beach   15.1" 22.3"
  3.3 Belleplain State Forest   15.2" 17.4"
  8.4 Cape May-Wildwood 14.9" 24.9"
  6.0 Millville-Vineland 12.6" 18.3"
  0.6 Moorestown/Cherry Hill  19.4"  25.7"

 

 OTHER WEATHER BLOGS TO FOLLOW

CITY WINTER OUTLOOKS (200 CITIES)

THE LATEST EL NINO WATCH 2014

YOUR  SUMMER OUTLOOK 2014


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