Welcome to the August 2012 Weather Outlook for the U.S.A. I did not venture too far from the Climate Prediction Center for several reasons listed below.

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1. El NINO.

We here at Liveweatherblogs.com see the El Nino in a weak state for August so I'm not seeing a whole lot of change from July...Warmer and Wetter in the East...Dry and Warm in the Midwest and temps a bit below normal in the PAC West.  

The early call for a good portion of the USA is this warmer than normal pattern to persist into October. The wild card to the East Coast could be a "tropical system" that changes the precip outlook but we are going against that right now.

CAPE VERDE HURRICANE SEASON ?

2. Slow Jet...Slow Changes

The Jet Stream will be on a slower than normal pace so this in part will bring the severe weather back to reality for August. This is just one of the factors we see for August to bring the Severe Weather to a slower clip but I would not be surprised to see one more Derecho type of an event in the Midwest and Ohio Valley in August.

WHAT IS DERECHO ? CHECK OUT THE (3) TYPES

3. Climatology

I studied quite a bit of climatology in college and the one thing I have learned is that we do not see dramatic changes in these types of "transition" patterns. We are in the "LA NADA" state right now...what that basically means is no real El Nino or no real La Nina. La Nina is out and El Nino is sliding in...so expect pretty the same weather as we had in July.

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The map above is for temps in the USA. I think with HIGH pressure still setting up as the ring of fire at times we'll keep the greatest heat in the Midwest in places like Chicago-St Louis-Indy and Kansas City. The east will still have a few heatwaves in August too. 

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The East will start wet but end on a dry note...unless of course we get that "tropical wild card". High Pressure centered over the Rockies will start August but it will sit in the spot it has for a good part of the summer...the Midwest. 

Due to the High over top of the Midwest this will keep most of the storms around the high in Texas, Dakotas and parts of Minnesota-Wisconsin.

Expect an active Monsoon month again in New Mexico, Arizona, Utah and Colorado. The PAC NW may get some early rain but the later part of the month looks quite dry. Happy Forecasting !

---Meteorologist Rob Guarino & The Staff of Liveweatherblogs.com

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