While the summer and hurricane forecast is still being looking into for the 2012 season, some models are starting to sniff out the details of what the Winter of 2012-2013 has in store.
The one, long range model that has my attention and has since February is the JAMSTEC.
The JAMSTEC from the Japanese Meteorological center has continued to trend towards a very cold USA and Europe. This particular model has done quite well with the March heat in the eastern US , an overal MILD 2012 winter, and several past year forecast temps.
The ABOVE IMAGE is the 27 member ensemble of surface temps for Dec, Jan, and FEB of 2012-2013.
The sea surface temps show a breakdown of the strong, COLD PDO signature in the pacific which will help in relaxing super troughs over the west coast The model also indicates EL nino conditions in the pacific through Feb, which has been trending that way over the last couple of months.
The model "jives" with the CMC's ELNINO prediction of Neutral conditions going into the Fall which supports cooler than normal temps over the US.
Noaa's CFS also supports such and idea with more ridging over the western/ Rockiest and cooler than normal over the Eastern US.
One year that I am watching is the 2002-2003 analog. The winter of 2002 had 3.5" at Central Park (Due to a LA NINA YEAR, SIMILAR TO OUR WINTER OF 2011-2012)... While the following year saw 49.3" ... The average is less than 30" at Central Park, NY.
The similarities of the 2002-2003 winter and this upcoming winter are a weakening COLD PDO signature ALONG with neutral ENSO conditions. Both are significant!
Awesome blog Mike. I've been following JB's twitter and free portions of WB and he's been hinting at the same thing for awhile now. He was dead on back in the summer of 09 for a setup similar to this happening. Here's to hoping we see something like this after the dreadful winter we had.
If I remember correctly 02-03 was much colder than 09-10 even though we had higher snow totals in the Baltimore to Philly area in 09-10. Not getting locked in on anything long range anymore after this dreadful winter but we can always hope and watch the trends. The trend is our friend and if the trend we are in now was back in January or February we would have had a much better shot at snow with the blocking that has been happening of late.