Main update is to back off the El Nino and make it more of a neutral ENSO winter for 2012-2013. However, since the SST in the Equatorial Pacific have been flirting with a weak status El Nino we are not hanging our forecast on snowfall or ice events. But we will adjust temperatures to the colder side!
I know the traffic can get bad when we take the 285 but this is nuts. It's the world's worst traffic jam ever. It was 60 miles long and lasted 11 days yeah 11 days. Where ? Bejing China !
Ok back to weather. You know with the weak to moderate El Nino on the way we see an increased risk of severe weather this winter in Georgia and Florida. The track will determine how back it will get but the severe weather potential is higher than normal for a severe outbreak with tornadoes in December and again in February.
Last winter this signal was on the positive side and keep what little storms we had moving at a pretty good clip in the south. This did not allow for moisture to develop in the gulf and Atlantic Ocean for a good part of the winter. The NAO will be in the negative or blocking mode for at least half the winter and that means a better than 55% chance of a snowstorm and even a few ice storms in Atlanta and northern Georgia this winter.
So with the AO (Arctic Oscillation) back in the game after a record hibernation up north will this mean a COLD winter for Atlanta ? Possibly with impressive snow cover building up in Canada waiting to be released southward!
SO WILL ATLANTA GET SNOW THIS WINTER ? YES IT WILL !
I'm gonna throw in 1-2 ice events for Atlanta due to the timing of a weak storm off the Midwest and some cold air off a sharp Arctic invasion. They will be small events but as we know in Atlanta it will not take much to shut the city down.
Hi all. I am from Atlanta (Dunwoody in particular) and I am starting to become skeptical whether or not we will get any snow this year. So far it has been just another warm winter. Just like last year. Overall the main question is -- Will Atlanta get 1 or more days of accumulative snow this winter??
brad...we are going through all the cities and updates to reflect the change in the el nino status. Thanks for finding us...sure looks like a fun winter in the east this year with the NAO and AO becoming the main factors now
Good evening Rob, I look at the site almost every day, winter weather is fascinating to me. I live about 20 miles north of Raleigh NC. The latest outlook I can find is Oct 20th. Was wondering how the snow forcast is looking for my area since we have the neutral elnino,and -nao,-ao right now I think. I'm new to this so bare with me. And when can we hopefully expect our first snow!!! Thank you and your team yall are doing a outstanding job.
Im not from ga but ive been here for three years my baby is now big enough to play in snow but im not sure it will snow this year. I live in snellville ga do you think it will snow this year so that my family can see snow since we are from Miami and we never get snow.
Thanks Rob Guarino for a nice thread and it looks like one on the way for Chattanooga too. I'm from Duluth, MN so I know long winters that are not found in the MidWest or South but it gets cold here a lot at night where I live now in TN and some days but not like Duluth where 20 below in the day is common some years. I lived on the Lake with my parents and it is milder and less snow but still cold through June 1st.
Hi Mark, the poster, You are three houses away from me. Thanks for telling me about this site. It's so true where we live in Chattanooga area there can be 2" reported at the airport yet most places other than downtown will be 8-10" so we do not get a normal average or forecast here. It's always much colder than downtown or the airport and a lot more snow. We had snow showers last week at 3am while our mountains had drifts two stories high to the east one hour drive above 2500 feet.
I wish they would move the reporting center so it shows what really goes on here in winter. We have a month longer winter than Atlanta but going by the airport not so and it is often 30* colder than Atlanta too because fronts stall just south of Dalton, GA a lot or at least the cold air. It's cold here now 49* my house but 56* airport.
I'm a student in Met and my grandfather is retired but was a Met and he says the Eastern US is in for cold this winter and a good part of the West too in CO area. I think forecasters here seem to agree.