The AOstayed ossitive most of last year which hurt the potental for snow . A roanoke normal snow is 22" of snow Here are some factors and then we will have you offical first forecast for the winter
THE 2012-2013 ROANOKE/LYNCHBURG WINTER OUTLOOK
The current state of El Nino is between Neutral and a weak El Nino. This will start to push a little toward the Weak El Nino has we head toward November and December. Expect a mild fall before a start to the winter in late December.
3 BIG FACTORS TO CARVE OUT THE WINTER OF 2012-2013
EL NINO STATE OF MIND...
If we sit here for the winter ahead this is good news for the snow lovers in the Roanoke area including NC VA WV. This will allow for good moisture but with not all the warmth of a full blow El Nino in theMID ATLANTIC. But wait one must not forecast but a weak El Nino alone.
I Know it's very early to be looking at the NAO (North American Oscillation but looking over the trend of last winter and how the Weak El Nino and decent -AO look to be playing out we'll see a lean toward the Negative side on the NAO index. This means a better than 50% chance of at least (3) 4"+ snowstorms in Roanoke Area.
Last year this meter sat on the Positive for most of the winter. We had a few short periods on the Negative side but the lack of any real cross polar influence led to not only the warmest winter on record for most of North America but some of the least amount of snow cover from Northern Canada to the USA.
We see a return to the cross polar flow...not the coldest winter ahead of us but enough to pop with a -NAO and a few good shots of southern moisture
ROANOKE NORMAL SNOW
Dean D Davison
Staff Meteorologist/Admin / Severe Weather Manager