Indianapolis is going to have an interesting winter with most of the snow coming from either a weak El Nino or an active Southern Jet or both. We at liveweatherblogs think the southern Jet stream could be the key to a few ice/snow this winter.
The timing is key this entire winter with the cold outbreaks and additional moisture from the south that could bring 2-4 winter events esp. in the northern and central portion of the state.
So combining the two jets is where we need to be come this winter if you like snow and ice. El Nino or La Nina? Not sure where we want to put that just yet with most of of the models leaning down the middle or weak El Nino.
Take a look at the chart below and see a slight trend to the El Nino side so yeah it's early in the game but things will change for sure.
The NAO or North Atlantic Oscillation is simply a "blocking" pattern that allows for cold air to slow down and allows LOW pressure to form off the coast and has time to explode into snowstorms.
It's basically the traffic cop of weather. Slow the pattern down and the odds of a juiced up system getting into the Eastern Part of the U.S. starts to increase. Negative NAO = More storm chances east of the Mississippi River.
The snowiest seasons in Indianapolis are above with a circle next to the year identifying the ENSO condition. Red is El Nino and Blue La Nina and Orange Neutral.
Red dots are analog years we are using for the winter outlook. One of our analog years is one of the