Interesting article-- I have also pictured this CHICAGO winter to be slightly on the mild side, with the exception of a brief arctic plunge towards the mid-to-late January and beginning of February--which *may* trigger some heavy Lake Snows--but I feel it will not be a Chicago thing, more like a South Bend type event... Slightly below average snowfall overall; If we do get big snows, then they will occur much later into 2013. 94-95 sounds right whereas last year was more of an 82-83 type setup (yet, both sucked in terms of snowfall). This winter will NOT be as warm as 2011-12, but it does look to be rather uneventfull---prove me wrong!!!
All eyes will be on Buffalo, NY and Syracuse after their HORRIBLE winter last year! Near Record low snow season...
Yesterday hit 70 degrees at O'Hare and 72 degrees at Midway airports in Chicago. A couple suburban locations hit 73 degrees. Big pattern change coming by next week. NAO negative and AO negative, with big pool of very cold air up in Alaska which might be getting ready to crash down on the Central and Eastern US. Might be a very cold Christmas here!
Last winter was an epic failure of basically all climate forecasters. We were warned that a truly brutal winter was in store for the Midwest, and in the end we got bupkiss. Interestingly, slightly more than half of ENSO neutral winters--52% of them--end up colder than the long term average. But the snowy winter numbers are more impressive. 14 of the 21 snow seasons in ENSO neutral years have been snowier than the long term average--that's 67% of them. This suggests we could have a much different cold season on the way--in terms of both temp and snowfall---than last year. And that's not even taking into account the sudden appearance of high latitude "Greenland-type" blocking which has started showing up from time to time in recent months---another development that, were it to continue, would argue for a colder and potentially snowier winter. There's certainly isnt anything carved in stone, but at least there is hope for extreme weather fans as myself.
This is my first post on this forum. My thoughts on the upcoming winter is that we will see something similar to 2009-2010. Lots of cold shots for the Midwest, many smaller snowstorms, but probably not monster storms, that will probably plague the East Coast this winter. It seems as if the Greenland Blocking pattern has re-emerged this autumn, and is becoming more frequent. Add to that the Arctic Oscillation has been trending negative overall since the middle of September, and that spells cold.