SNOWFALL THIS SEASON (MARCH 13)         29.8"

LIVEWEATHERBLOGS.COM PREDICTION    25.3"

AVERAGE CHICAGO SNOWFALL                   37.7"

Measurable (0.1 inches or more)

One Inch or More

Seasonal Snowfall Records

Monthly Snowfall Records

Chicago vs. Other Cities and Winters

Here is a look two winters ago....

 So will this winter be a snowy one or La Nada like last winter ?

Chicago will be part of the weak to NO El Nino this winter so what is the analog for those types of winters ?

During a weak El Niño, there is generally a war between warmth to the south and the chill to the north. This allows for ample moisture to fuel the winter storms.

During a strong El Niño, the storm track sets up in such a way to allow warm air to overwhelm the Midwest and Northeast; therefore, storms tend to favor rain rather than snow.

There are other oscillations that also have effects on the weather patterns. Last winter we had  La Nina and a rather weak AO, Arctic Oscillation. This meant not only a milder pattern from La Nina but the Arctic Air stay well north most of the winter.

           Positive AO shows cold air up north     Negative AO means more cold 

The AO usually fluctuates back and forth between positive (strong jet stream near the Arctic Circle) and negative (weak jet stream near the Arctic Circle) over the course of a winter.

In short, when the AO is strongly positive, the jet stream is strong from west to east around the Arctic Circle and cold air cannot escape southward to the mid-latitudes.

"The persistent, strongly positive AO this past winter was highly unusual and had a profound effect on temperature and snowfall over much of the U.S. and southern Canada," 

Since the clash of cold air with warm air is a key ingredient for storms and cold air is needed for snow, a strongly positive AO greatly reduces the chance of such an occurrence.

Generally, the AO cannot be predicted more than a few weeks in advance. This is the same case for the North American Oscillation.

"However, odds are greatly in favor of the AO either being less strongly positive or at least being negative at times this coming winter, compared to last winter,"

A negative AO is a weaker circulation around the Arctic Circle and allows cold air to drive southward. This is the key to getting snow in Chicago Dec-Feb.

The strongly positive AO throughout this past winter prevented a feature called the Greenland Block from setting up. The Greenland Block tends to lock in sufficient cold air in the northeastern U.S. for approaching storms.

The less strongly positive AO and occasional blocking should at least create more opportunities for snow this winter. This means the NAO will be in our favor for January 2013 that could be the best month for snow.

We are gonna go with the "NO" El Nino idea this winter and on the graph above we think the 1994-1995 year may be looking like the winter ahead of us (2012-2013).

The current state of El Nino is between Neutral and a weak El Nino. NOAA and liveweatherblogs.com weather team have decided to write off El Nino for now so other factors like the NAO AO and Canadian snow cover become the main players in carving out this winter.

Overall Chicago will see temps average a few degrees BELOW normal with the coldest weather Jan 17-February 8th at this point.

      SO YOU WANT TO KNOW HOW MUCH SNOW ?

 This outlook has been updated March 13, 2013 to reflect the lack of snow in December and early January. We also called for an active February and March and it sure is so far.

SNOWFALL THIS SEASON                                29.8"

LIVEWEATHERBLOGS.COM PREDICTION    25.3"

AVERAGE CHICAGO SNOWFALL                   37.7"

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