**New feature to the site will be the dot in the above image. This is where I would place myself if I was chasing tornadoes (topography and road network not factored in). This is just another way to raise awareness and to try out new methods for tornado forecasting (not to scare anyone near these areas). The thoughts and opinions in this blog are mine and not an official forecast. For an official Severe Weather Outlook please visit www.spc.noaa.gov. ***
The biggest threat for severe weather will be in the Upper Midwest across Minnesota into Wisconsin. The combination of early morning convection (remnant outflow) combined with the triple point moving through MN with associated warm front draped across an area of sufficient instability and vertical shear. This will result in an enhanced tornadic supercell threat across MN into portions of WI. However, I agree with the latest update from SPC as they emphasis an area along the warm front that has a weaker thermal contrast along the front. Stronger wind shear and sufficient instability in the pre cold frontal environment across Northern MN will see a threat for tornadoes also, but these storms will track over the warm front into a much more stable environment quicker than the south. The reason being is the convection this early AM will act to enhance the warm front up north. On the southern edge of the strong westerlies storms will have more time to develop a threat for tornadic supercells in the enhanced SRH environment. The MLCAPE values will range from 1000-1500J/Kg...part of the reason for MLCAPE from going higher is the mid level warm air advection as the trough takes a neg tilt and lifts out. Linear forcing will promote upscale growth but given the 45 degree angle of the forcing to bulk shear vectors I think the discrete mode will dominant leading to the tornadic threat.
As we head down south the tornadic threat drops off sharply as weaker vertical shear will favor multicells. This environment will see much more instability with MLCAPE values ranging from 2000-3500J/Kg. Most of the storms will lead to damaging winds/marginally severe hail.flash flooding. However a secondary higher threat exist across KS vicinity with a mid level impulse teaming up with stronger low level flow. This should support a small area of high based supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out especially towards evening with lowering cloud bases and enhanced low level vertical shear supporting a tornado threat.