Winter did not take long to visit Boston in the month of November with afew shots of light snow throughout the area.  Updated blogs on winter forecast:

QBO AND WINTER 2013

SNOW COVER AND WINTER 2013

DECEMBER 2012 OUTLOOK

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AVERAGE SNOWFALL FOR BOSTON BY MONTH...FEB. IS TYPICALLY THE BIG MONTH

It's all about the wind in Boston for a decent snowstorm and yeah it's the Nor'easter that gets Boston the most snow. So which wind direction brings the most snow ?

So we know we are entering in an Neutral signal but the magical question that still remains is how close do we flirt with a weak El Nino this winter ? Below is a chart of El Nino years vs. La Nina years and how temps change in those cycles of El Nino vs. La Nina.

So you see on the graph above that in Boston the typical El Nino warmer temps has a lag time of a few months before the warmer temps come in. So what does that mean for this winter ? It did mean near average temperatures but the lack of an el nino status and current indications of snow cover/blocking/qbo shows below average temperatures.

THE LAST 10 WINTERS IN BOSTON (MONTHLY SNOW TOTALS)

2001-02   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   5.0   7.9   0.5   1.4   0.3   0.0    T   15.1"
2002-03   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.6   9.6   4.2  39.9   8.1   2.3   0.0   0.0  67.7"
2003-04   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  17.2   4.9   2.4  10.6   0.0   0.0   0.0  35.1"
2004-05   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.9   7.2  43.3  17.7  14.5   0.0   0.0   0.0  86.6"
2005-06   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.1   0.0  10.7   8.1  20.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  39.9"
2006-07   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.8   1.0   4.6  10.2   0.5   0.0   0.0  17.1"
2007-08   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  26.9   8.3  15.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  51.2"
2008-09   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  25.3  23.7   6.2  10.7   0.0   0.0   0.0  65.9"
2009-10   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.0  15.2  13.2   7.0   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0  35.7"
2010-11   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  22.0  38.3  18.5   1.3   0.9   0.0   0.0  81.0"
2011-12   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   6.8   0.9   0.6     -     -     -  9.3"

Avg       0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.6  12.0  14.9  11.8   7.0   0.3   0.0   0.0  43.7"


WARM W/ LOW SNOW TOTALS
BELOW AVG WINTER
ABOVE AVERAGE WINTER
AWESOME SNOWLY WINTER

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Where do we stand right now on my "BIG 3" factors to the winter ahead. These will change in the coming months but here is how I see them now and in the future.

The El Nino is struggling to reach a weak stage but it is very close! 

The NAO or North Atlantic Oscillation is simply a "blocking" pattern that allow for cold air to slow down and allows LOW pressure to form off the coast and have time to explode into snowstorms. It bascially is the traffic cop of weather. Slow the pattern down and the odds of a juiced up system getting into Baltimore increase.

The AO or Arctic Oscillation is like the traffic cop of Arctic Air and last winter the Arctic never got past the stop sign. This is a fickle index because to much Arctic air and all the storm get pushed south into the Carolinas..not enough and well you have what happen last winter. Put the NAO and AO in sync and a nice dose of El Nino moisture and you lean toward an above average winter in Boston. Could it be like 2010-11 or 2004-2005 ? Maybe but we are just too early in the game to look at that yet.

UPDATED NUMBERS FROM DECEMBER:

46.2" of snow

Below Average Temperatures

AS OF MARCH 2, 2013..... 42.8"

LIVEWEATHERBLOGS PREDICTION.... 43.7"

SO FAR (2) STORMS OVER 5.0"