How are we going to have a record warm fall when september is much cooler and october will likely remain the same? With the negative NAO in place still, i would expect a wetter and cooler fall and going into el nino our storms will be coming from the south and thats how we get our snowstorms in the winter in the mid atlantic. How cold do you think it will be by November? NOAA always has above normal temps in the forecast, so i dont put much faith into their outlooks.