Wednesday AM 2/27/13:  Wow, big differences overnight between the 00Z GFS and 00Z Euro deterministic model forecasts for the Mid-Atlantic threat during the middle of next week. Both models feature a low pressure system in the Southeast US come next Tuesday night, but the GFS then suppresses it to the south and keeps it relatively weak whereas the Euro obviously has a much quicker phasing in the upper atmosphere and rapidly intensifies the low pressure system as it pushes it towards the Chesapeake Bay region by Wednesday night. The two maps below show these big differences between the 00Z GFS (top) and 00Z Euro (bottom) for the verification time of next Wednesday evening (ie 192-hour forecast). [Euro map from raleighwx.americanwx web site].  Stay tuned on this one…the Euro has had a pretty good track record in the medium range. Detailed morning video discussion on this threat at thesiweather.com.

Paul Dorian/Meteorologist

The SI Organization, Inc.

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