A significant sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event took place earlier this winter and played an important role in flipping the overall temperature pattern in the eastern US from above-to-below normal for the latter part of January and February. There are some signs right now that another stratospheric warming event may be getting underway. The 30-day loop of 10-mb temperature anomalies (top link below) shows a noticeable sudden warming in the last few frames across southeast Asia and the southeast US. In addition, the latest Euro model 10-day temperature forecast (2nd link below) at 10 mb shows quite an expansion of a bubble of warmer air on the Asian side of the pole compared to current conditions (bottom link below). Current conditions show the rather typical cold polar vortex centered near the pole, but it does begin to get squeezed 10 days from now. We’ll continue to monitor this at thesiweather.com.

Paul Dorian/Meteorologist

The SI Organization, Inc.

thesiweather.com now on Facebook and Twitter

link to 30-day loop of temperature anomalies at 10 mb

10-day temperature forecast at 10-mb by the Euro model

Current temperature anomalies at 10-mb