As we inch closer to the winter we see all signs pointing to an El Nino in Central Florida and this can often mean wild weather in the form of severe thunderstorms, tornadoes and flooding rain. It's not a guarantee but most of the winter forecast will ride on the power of El Nino and how far south the Southern Jet decides to set up shop in the Orlando Area.
Past El Nino's have been a hit or miss with areas to the north getting the bulk of the rain and wild weather. We feel Central Florida will get it's fair share of wild weather esp. in later December abnd January when we expect to see El Nino in full force.
The graph above shows the big push toward El Nino with most of it coming in the fall and winter. It could start as early as mid to late June or as late as August but all signs point to El Nino. El Nino also tends to put a halt to the hurricane season as west to east winds shear off the top of developing tropical systems.
You need +0.5 temps to get El Nino started and +1.0 for a moderate El Nino. A strong El Nino is present when we reach Pacific oceans temps of +1.5. Some of the models above hit that criteria but we feel here at Liveweatherblogs.com that a Moderate El Nino will be the place most of the winter.
So we looked over the last 50 years of El Nino winters in Florida and 8 were weak El Nino's, 4 were a moderate El Nino and 7 years were classified as a strong El Nino. We are placing a good deal of our forecast on El Nino this winter simply due that we feel it will be a weak to moderate event.
Other factors into our forecast are the usual NAO or North Atlantic Oscillation. The STJ or Sub Tropical Jet along with the Arctic Oscillation and PNA or Pacific North American Teleconnection.
Orlando will have a warmer than normal start to the winter with a few record high temps un December and it should be on the dry side. January rolls in with some wild storms, wind and even 1-2 cold outbreaks. The outbreaks will not be severe cold just enough to make for a chill the second week in January. February starts stormy but ends on a cool dry note across most of area from the Tampa to Daytona Beach. Overall it's a decent winter to hit the area resorts like Disneyworld, Universal Studios and more.
AVG. WINTER RAINFALL IN ORLANDO IS:
THIS WINTER RAINFALL IN ORLANDO IS:
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL
MILD START DECEMBER
A COLDER FEBRUARY
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