NYC METRO INCLUDING NORTH JERSEY L.I. CT NYC METRO INCLUDING NORTH JERSEY L.I. CT

JOESTRADAMUS: IRMA RISK GROWS FLORIDA BAHAMAS SOUTHEAST US (SEPTEMBER 4, 2017)

Discussion started by Joe Cioffi 2 months ago

irma

Irma going forward is going thread a very fine needle. The graphic above from Tropical Tidbits is the most recent aircraft report with a pressure of 944 mb which is down 16 millibars from last night. This round of strengthening appears to have leveled off for the time being but this could be another one of those eye wall replacement cycles. Conditions favor further strengthening and Irma could be a category 4 hurricane when it makes its closest pass to the Leeward Islands on Tuesday.Recent satellite loops show that the motion this afternoon has been more westerly which could be the end of the west south west motion but lets wait a few more hours to make sure the westerly course is the new heading.

irma

The hurricane model guidance is well clustered with most of the models taking a track just north of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic and the the eye gets very close to the north coast of Cuba. From there a slow right turn should commence with a majority of the models including all the global models bringing Irma in South or Southeast Florida over the weekend. From here the track becomes a bit more muddied as the upper air jet stream pattern remains very volatile and sensitive to even the slightest adJustment north or south...READ MORE AT http://www.meteorologistjoecioffi.com/index.php/2017/09/04/irma-risks-grow-florida-bahamas-southeast-us/

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