Over the last seven days weather models have been consistently showing some sort of tropical system developing in the Northwest Caribbean and making its way into the Gulf of Mexico. They have been doing this with remarkable consistency and now that we are inside a week I thought it might be a good idea to see what exactly is going on. First off as far as the Gulf of Mexico is concerned today we see disturbed weather in the Eastern Gulf extending westward from Florida to the Central Gulf of Mexico. THIS IS NOT ANY KIND OF TROPICAL SYSTEM nor is it forecast to become one.
On the water vapor loop below there is disturbed weather in the southwest corner of the loop south of the coast of Mexico on the Pacific side. This is showing some signs of organization and that could become a tropical depression over the next day or so per the National Hurricane Center. However more importantly is that the region from there westward to Central America is forecast to become very active with increasing convection and thunderstorms over the coming week. Add to that the fact that we will have pressures that will be running low across the region and a somewhat favorable upper air pattern developing later this week, that something could develop there next weekend....READ MORE AT http://www.meteorologistjoecioffi.com/index.php/2017/06/11/tropical-storm-possibilities-next-weekend-in-nw-caribbean-gulf-of-mexico/