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El Nino Watch & Update 2014-2015 (It could be big…real BIG)

Discussion started by robweather 2 months ago

ELNINOSOCIAL

 SEPTEMBER 17, 2014 UPDATE NEW INFO

 

Rob Guarino's Bio and 12 National Awards

Long Range Accuracy & Forecasts 

 

Here we are in Mid August and El Nino is playing a "look at me again game" as a piece of the Kelvin Wave from earlier this summer makes a run for warmer Pacific El Nino based waters. Back in June and July ocean-atmosphere processes have consumed most of the warm water in the eastern equatorial Pacific from downwelling.  The North Pacific is warming fast and we are seeing Tuna and yellowfish the furthest north they have ever been, Check out this update.

 

This pool of water headed west but feed itself back into the western equatorial Pacific to bring back a mini surge in El Nino in the coming months. What does this all mean? Mother Nature may be playing the comeback game after a two month downside away from El Nino chances.  The current risk for El Nino this fall and winter is at about 73% on the American Outlook, 50% from the Aussie Mets and we here at liveweatherblogs.com sit in the 70%-75% range. Our winter outlook has over 400 cities large and small and all 50 state outlooks...so check it out.

Screen Shot 2014-08-17 at 7.43.23 AM

 

We have been looking at the 1982-83 El Nino and also the 1997-1998 and 2009-2010 El Nino events and and not seeing the comparisons as much as I saw earlier this summer. What I do see and since I have been keeping a close eye on the downwelling of the Kelvin Wave, are the evolution comparisons using warm water anomalies and depth-averaged temperature anomalies from NOAA TAO project website.

 After taking a look at the Hovmoller diagrams comparing the progrees so far up to here in mid August we are starting to see 1982 El Nino. We have been using 1997-98 and 2009-2010 as a reference, but we are not even close to the 1997-98 event at this point so looking to 1982-1983 may be the wiser choice for an analog year. Oh yeah that El Nino was a late bloomer. Will the winter be bad? 

 

EL NINO IMPACT BY STATE

WHAT IT WILL COST YOU?

FIND YOUR STATE HERE

 

EL NINO MODOKI FOR 2014?

WHAT IS IT & WHAT ARE THE TELECONNECTIONS

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YOUR HOMETOWN WINTER OUTLOOK

200 Cities with Snow Days, Snowfall, Temps, Extreme Winter Weather

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YOUR HOMETOWN WINTER OUTLOOK (CANADA)

50 Cities with Snow Days, Snowfall, Temps, El Nino

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YOUR STATE WINTER OUTLOOK

Many smaller cities are in this outlook, Snow Days, Temps

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SKI AREA WINTER OUTLOOKS

 300 Ski areas for Snowfall, Temps by Month, El Nino Snow Forecast

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DISASTER RISK IS UP FOR THE U.S.A !

Check out the risk for your town and state

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OCEAN TEMPS ARE ON THE RISE

The ocean temperatures at the top of the first few hundred feet is on the rise, yet another sign of El Nino in the near future.  We still don't have all the pieces of the El Nino puzzle but some are starting to emerge for a better outlook. Once you see the orange water temps  you can bet on this trending to an El Nino summer, fall and winter.  El Nino regions are divided into four groups where we measure the ocean temps in different parts of the Pacific Ocean to see which way they are trending over a period of three months. If you get the ocean to sit in a three month period of +0.5c above normal El Nino has begun.  We are getting close to that period this late summer to early fall.

 

The extent of El Niño’s strength won’t be known until September or maybe even October. But based on several interesting signals, in the form of mammals, birds, and fish showing up where they don’t typically belong, it’s looking as though this El Niño is going to be a very powerful event.

The birds, fish and mammels of the Pacific are already heading to the warmer waters and they know the ocean better than the models we use to predict El Nino's.

Screen Shot 2014-08-17 at 7.57.35 AM

 

Screen Shot 2014-08-17 at 8.25.35 AM

 

GET OUR LONG RANGE FORECASTS

USA WINTER OUTLOOK 2014-2015

WINTER OUTLOOK BY CITY (200 CITIES)

WINTER OUTLOOK BY STATE (50 STATES)

SKI OUTLOOKS BY SKI AREA (300 SKI AREAS)

 

YOUR HOMETOWN WINTER OUTLOOK (CANADA)

50 Cities with Snow Days, Snowfall, Temps, El Nino

 

OUR EL NINO BLOGS

WHAT IS EL NINO? HOW DOES IT WORK?

EL NINO 1997 VS. 2014...THE BIGGEST YET?

HURRICANES AND EL NINO...YES THEY CAN BE BIG

EL NINO TO SLAM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

 

 MID AUGUST 2014 UPDATE 

↑EL NINO IS 70%-73% ↑

Screen Shot 2014-08-22 at 2.53.22 PM

 

CPC/IRI ENSO Forecast Probabilities  August 22, 2014

3 Month periodLa NiñaNeutralEl Niño
ASO 2014 ~0% 58% 42%
SON 2014 ~0% 44% 56%
OND 2014 ~0% 36% 64%
NDJ 2014 ~0% 30% 70%
DJF 2014 ~0% 27% 73%
JFM 2015 ~0% 32% 68%
FMA 2015 1% 37% 62%
MAM 2015 2% 43% 55%
AMJ 2015 4% 45% 51%

WHAT KIND OF EL NINO?

Screen Shot 2014-08-22 at 3.09.06 PM

 

The consensus for El Nino Southern Oscillation is getting a bit better but does our now warming ocean send a false signal to the El Nino models? Could some of the modeling be jumping the gun too early on El Nino?  I am gonna lean against a few experts and go with the real deal this winter but maybe not a strong El Nino just yet. Below is the warming of the oceans vs. the actual model data projections. 

COULD EL NINO BE A FAKE AGAIN?

Screen Shot 2014-04-14 at 6.19.21 PM

The diagram would indicate the modeling and future forecasts 6 months ahead outstrip the actual data. This graph shows us that this has been an occasional problem since 1985 and an increased problem since 1997. Some would argue that the early signs of climate change are making it tougher and tougher to detect a true El Nino more than 3 months away.  If this is true than the 66% chance on the model may be off once again. We are sticking with an El Nino this winter for several reasons. From a statitical standpoint we are due for a moderate to perhaps strong El Nino. 

 

  

WEAK, MODERATE OR
STRONG EL NINO?

Our forecast is leaning to a moderate to strong El Nino this winter and our target is a strong El Nino indicated by the chart below.  It's still early in the game, 1-3 months away from a real outcome but the signs are starting to surface.  We'll be updating every 1-2 weeks so check back for more info as we get closer to El Nino 2014-2015.

 

WHAT IS OUR FORECAST?

Screen Shot 2014-08-22 at 3.22.34 PM

 

WHICH ANALOG YEARS DO WE SEE THAT

LOOK LIKE THE 2014-15 WINTER AHEAD?

Screen Shot 2014-06-24 at 10.41.24 PM

 

EL NINO MODOKI 2014?

WHAT IS IT & WHAT ARE THE TELECONNECTIONS

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YOUR HOMETOWN WINTER OUTLOOK

200 Cities with Snow Days, Snowfall, Temps, Extreme Winter Weather

___________________________________________________

YOUR HOMETOWN WINTER OUTLOOK (CANADA)

50 Cities with Snow Days, Snowfall, Temps, El Nino

___________________________________________________

EL NINO ECONOMIC IMPACT ON YOU!

State breakdown on Gas Prices, Heating Bills, Groceries

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YOUR STATE WINTER OUTLOOK

Many smaller cities are in this outlook, Snow Days, Temps

_____________________________________________

SKI AREA WINTER OUTLOOKS

 300 Ski areas for Snowfall, Temps by Month, El Nino Snow Forecast

___________________________________________________

EL NINO WATCH UPDATE 2014-2015

Is this El Nino a Fake? The chances have dropped in August

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DISASTER RISK IS UP FOR THE U.S.A !

Check out the risk for your town and state

_____________________________________________________

 

WHAT TO EXPECT WITH THIS EL NINO?

Summer 2014 (What to expect)

--Hot summer across the Southwest, TX, California & Pacific Northwest

--Cool to near normal temps for the Midwest in August

--The East Coast gets HOT in later August & the rain starts to cut-off by mid month

--New England stays near normal for August

--A few tropical systems develop in August, 2 hurricanes

 

Fall 2014 (What to Expect)

--A mild fall in the East and South, Cooler early in the Midwest & Pacific NW.

--The Southwest, Alaska & Hawaii are near normal as is New England

Winter 2014 (What to Expect)

--Near Normal temps in the Midwest and East, warmer in the Southeast.

--Cooler in the Southwest and West Coast, Snowy weather in the West & Mid Atlantic

 

WILDCARDS FOR

SEPTEMBER & OCTOBER

Snow in Septemer in the Dakotas/Minnesota

Hurricane along the East Coast in October

 

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Arnold
Arnold
I assume that the forecast for Shasta will be largely true for Mt.Ashland too. Actually, I had intended to write Mt. Ashland. If Howard Prairie is going to get that much snow, I assume Mt. Ashland certainly will too and probably much more. Last winter when it was cold enough to snow, it was dry. When moisture finally arrived in January 2014 it was too mild for snow. Our water season Sept. to April got around 14" of precipitation in Medrord which is not that far off the normal but it fell in the "wrong" form for irrigation purposes. We are in a severe drought area but that is largely due to 2013 being so dry. Since the start of this year, Medford is actually ahead of normal.
1 month ago
robweather
robweather
Arnold we are updating info so The Portland one has to be changed to match the other info. I see it wet and cool for a good portion of Southern Oregon. I'll get to Mt. Shasta soon. Thanks for coming to the website.
1 month ago
Arnold
Arnold
I live in southern Oregon near Ashland and depend on irrigation availability. Your most recent el nino update by state shows Oregon getting a wet and cooler than average winter with the Howard Prairie Dam watershed receiving nearly 188" of snow, 50% above average. However, your separate Portland, OR forecast speaks of drier and warmer conditions with less snow up there. Could you tell me what you see for this area and also for snow conditions on Mt. Shasta. It got nothing in the last winter, a first.
1 month ago
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