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El Nino Watch & Update 2014-2015 (It could be big…real BIG)

Discussion started by robweather 3 days ago

ELNINOSOCIAL

 JULY 24, 2014 UPDATE NEW INFO JUST IN

EL NINO IMPACT BY STATE

WHAT IT WILL COST YOU?

FIND YOUR STATE HERE

 

A developing El Niño in the equatorial Pacific has generated the usual predictions of drastic weather changes—some devastating, some beneficial—throughout the world.

There’s a 72% to  90% percent probability that an El Niño will form, according to some experts and our staff here at Liveweatherblogs.com. That’s up considerably from previous predictions, but the main question at this point is whether this will be MODERATE El Niño or, more, a powerful warm-water event such as those in the early 1980s and late ’90s.

(El Niño is characterized by unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, whereas a La Niña is characterized by unusually cold temperatures. Strong El Niños typically alter weather patterns and can cause severe flooding in some areas, and droughts in others.)

The extent of El Niño’s strength won’t be known until mid August or even September. But based on several interesting signals, in the form of mammals, birds, and fish showing up where they don’t typically belong, it’s looking as though this El Niño is going to be a very powerful event.

The birds, fish and mammels of the Pacific are already heading to the warmer waters and they know the ocean better than the models we use to predict El Nino's.

 

GET OUR LONG RANGE FORECASTS

USA WINTER OUTLOOK

WINTER OUTLOOK BY CITY (200)

WINTER OUTLOOK BY STATE (50)

 

 

WHAT IS EL NINO? HOW DOES IT WORK?

EL NINO 1997 VS. 2014...THE BIGGEST YET?

HURRICANES AND EL NINO...YES THEY CAN BE BIG

EL NINO TO SLAM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

 

So with the trend to El Nino we must now ask what type of El Nino will this be come late summer and into all of next winter?  The early call would be a MODERATE El Nino like we had in 2009-2010. That winter bought huge snow to the Mid Atlantic region with record snowfall in Baltimore-Washington DC and Philadelphia. Rain fall from the biggest El Nino back in 1997-1998 bought huge rain totals to the west coast and flooding in the billions in California and the West Coast.

 

 MID JULY 2014 UPDATE 

EL NINO IS 72% - 75%

Screen Shot 2014-07-19 at 7.14.37 AM

 

WHAT KIND OF EL NINO?

Screen Shot 2014-07-19 at 7.21.10 AM

 

EL NINO THREE MONTH BREAKDOWN

IRI/CPC Mid-Month Plume-Based ENSO Forecast

SeasonLa NiñaNeutralEl Niño
JAS 2014 ~0% 49% 51%
ASO 2014 1% 39% 60%
SON 2014 ~0% 32% 68%
OND 2014 ~0% 26% 74%
NDJ 2014 ~0% 25% 75%
DJF 2014 ~0% 28% 72%
JFM 2015 1% 35% 64%
FMA 2015 1% 41% 58%
MAM 2015 3% 47% 50%

 

The consensus for El Nino Southern Oscillation is getting a bit better but does our now warming ocean send a false signal to the El Nino models? Could some of the modeling be jumping the gun too early on El Nino?  I am gonna lean against a few experts and go with the real deal this winter but maybe not a strong El Nino just yet. Below is the warming of the oceans vs. the actual model data projections.

COULD EL NINO BE A FAKE AGAIN?

Screen Shot 2014-04-14 at 6.19.21 PM

The diagram would indicate the modeling and future forecasts 6 months ahead outstrip the actual data. This graph shows us that this has been an occasional problem since 1985 and an increased problem since 1997. Some would argue that the early signs of climate change are making it tougher and tougher to detect a true El Nino more than 3 months away.  If this is true than the 66% chance on the model may be off once again. We are sticking with an El Nino this winter for several reasons. From a statitical standpoint we are due for a moderate to perhaps strong El Nino. 

 

OCEAN TEMPS ARE ON THE RISE

The ocean temperatures at the top of the first few hundred feet is on the rise, yet another sign of El Nino in the near future.  We still don't have all the pieces of the El Nino puzzle but some are starting to emerge for a better outlook. Once you see the orange water temps  you can bet on this trending to an El Nino summer, fall and winter.  El Nino regions are divided into four groups where we measure the ocean temps in different parts of the Pacific Ocean to see which way they are trending over a period of three months. If you get the ocean to sit in a three month period of +0.5c above normal El Nino has begun.  We are getting close to that period this late summer to early fall.

Screen Shot 2014-07-19 at 8.07.14 AM

 

 

WEAK, MODERATE OR STRONG EL NINO?

Our forecast is leaning to a moderate to strong El Nino this winter and our target is a strong El Nino indicated by the chart below.  It's still early in the game, 1-3 months away from a real outcome but the signs are starting to surface.  We'll be updating every 1-2 weeks so check back for more info as we get closer to El Nino 2014-2015.

 

WHAT IS OUR FORECAST?

Screen Shot 2014-07-19 at 7.50.59 AM

 

WHICH ANALOG YEARS DO WE SEE THAT

LOOK LIKE THE 2014-15 WINTER AHEAD?

Screen Shot 2014-06-24 at 10.41.24 PM

 

EL NINO IMPACT BY STATE

WHAT IT WILL COST YOU

FIND YOUR STATE HERE

 

GET OUR LONG RANGE FORECASTS

USA WINTER OUTLOOK

WINTER OUTLOOK BY CITY (200)

WINTER OUTLOOK BY STATE (50)

 

OTHER EL NINO RELATED STORIES

WHAT IS EL NINO? HOW DOES IT WORK?

EL NINO 1997 VS. 2014...THE BIGGEST YET?

HURRICANES AND EL NINO...YES THEY CAN BE BIG

EL NINO TO SLAM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

 

WHAT TO EXPECT WITH THIS EL NINO?

Summer 2014 (What to expect)

--Hot summer across the Southwest, TX, California & Pacific Northwest

--Hotter weather in the Midwest in July & August

--The East Coast gets HOT in August & the rain starts to cut-off by late month

--New England stays near normal for July but toasty for August

--A few tropical systems develop in July with a few more in August.

 

Fall 2014 (What to Expect)

--A mid fall in the East and South, Cooler early in the Midwest & Pacific NW.

--The Southwest, Alaska & Hawaii are near normal as is New England

Winter 2014 (What to Expect)

--Near Normal temps in the Midwest and East, warmer in the Southeast.

--Cooler in the Southwest and West Coast  

 

GET OUR LONG RANGE FORECASTS

 

USA WINTER OUTLOOK

WINTER OUTLOOK BY CITY (200)

WINTER OUTLOOK BY STATE (50)

 

 NATIONAL SUMMER OUTLOOK 2014

YOUR HOMETOWN SUMMER OUTLOOK HERE

 

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