NOVEMBER 21, 2014 UPDATE
EL NINO METER NOV 21, 2014
Here we are in late November and El Nino has started. We need 3 months of +.5c ocean temps in the Pacific to officially call it an El Nino but it has started. Will this winter be BAD? How much snow will I get? We typically get an update from CPC /IRC around the 4th to 7th of October...so it should be any day now. If you need a quick look at your HOMETOWN WINTER OUTLOOK we cover over 250 cities large and small across the U.S. Snow Days, Snowfall and Temps month by month.
Back in June and July ocean-atmosphere processes have consumed most of the warm water in the eastern equatorial Pacific from downwelling. The North Pacific is warming fast and we are seeing Tuna and yellowfish the furthest north they have ever been. We here are liveweatherblogs.com feel very confident of a weak to maybe a low end moderate El Nino this winter in North America.
This pool of water from the Kelvin Wave headed west but feed itself back into the western equatorial Pacific to bring back a mini surge in El Nino in the coming months. What does this all mean? Mother Nature may be playing the comeback game after a two month downside away from El Nino chances.
The current risk for El Nino this fall and winter is at about 75% on the American Outlook, 50% from the Aussie Mets and we here at liveweatherblogs.com sit in the 70% range.
EL NINO IS HERE!
CPC GOES FROM 58% to 75% RISK
CHANCE OF EL NINO?
|Season||La Niña||Neutral||El Niño|
WHAT DO THE MODELS PREDICT?
26 MODELS ARE REPRESENTED ABOVE, OF THOSE MODELS:
22 of 26 SHOW AN EL NINO THIS WINTER (85%)
18 of 26 SHOW A WEAK EL NINO EVENT (69%)
4 of 26 SHOW A MODERATE EL NINO EVENT (15%)
WEAK, MODERATE OR STRONG
EL NINO THIS WINTER?
El Nino affects the economy all over the globe and you would be surprised to see how much impact it will have on your wallet this winter. From home heating costs and gas prices to eating salmon the prices will change based on the impact of El Nino on you. You have included over 10 key industries that will see prices either go up or down the next 6 months so be ready to either save or lose money.
Our forecast is leaning to a weak to maybe low end moderate El Nino this winter and our target is a strong El Nino indicated by the chart below. It's still early in the game, 1-3 months away from a real outcome but the signs are starting to surface. We'll be updating every 1-2 weeks so check back for more info as we get closer to El Nino 2014-2015.
WHAT TO EXPECT WITH THIS EL NINO?
(What to Expect)
--Cold shots of air in mid November Midwest and East, Rain in SoCal late month
--Desert SW storms arrive off a developing active southern jet late month.
--The Southwest, Alaska & Hawaii are near normal as is New England.
Winter 2014 (What to Expect)
--Near Normal temps in the Midwest and East, warmer in the Southeast.
--Cooler in the Southwest and West Coast, Snowy weather in the West & Mid Atlantic.