El Nino Watch & Update 2014-2015 (It could be big…real BIG)

Discussion started by robweather 5 months ago

 

 NOVEMBER 21, 2014 UPDATE 

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Long Range Accuracy & Forecasts 

EL NINO WATCH

EL NINO METER NOV 21, 2014

 

Here we are in late November and El Nino has started.  We need 3 months of +.5c ocean temps in the Pacific to officially call it an El Nino but it has started.  Will this winter be BAD? How much snow will I get?  We typically get an update from CPC /IRC around the 4th to 7th of October...so it should be any day now. If you need a quick look at your HOMETOWN WINTER OUTLOOK we cover over 250 cities large and small across the U.S. Snow Days, Snowfall and Temps month by month. 

Compare the Climate Prediction Center's Winter Outlook vs. The Farmer's Almanac vs. Liveweatherblogs for snow totals temps and more.

 

Back in June and July ocean-atmosphere processes have consumed most of the warm water in the eastern equatorial Pacific from downwelling.  The North Pacific is warming fast and we are seeing Tuna and yellowfish the furthest north they have ever been. We here are liveweatherblogs.com feel very confident of a weak to maybe a low end moderate El Nino this winter in North America.

 

This pool of water from the Kelvin Wave headed west but feed itself back into the western equatorial Pacific to bring back a mini surge in El Nino in the coming months. What does this all mean? Mother Nature may be playing the comeback game after a two month downside away from El Nino chances.  

 

The current risk for El Nino this fall and winter is at about 75% on the American Outlook, 50% from the Aussie Mets and we here at liveweatherblogs.com sit in the 70% range.

EL NINO IS HERE!

CPC GOES FROM 58% to 75% RISK

MID  NOV EL NINO

 

CHANCE OF EL NINO?

75% EL NINO CHANCE

(We are in the first month of a weak El Nino)

Mid November ENSO Forecast Probabilities

SeasonLa NiñaNeutralEl Niño
NDJ 2014 ~0% 25% 75%
DJF 2014 ~0% 26% 74%
JFM 2015 ~0% 28% 72%
FMA 2015 ~0% 32% 68%
MAM 2015 ~0% 34% 66%
AMJ 2015 ~0% 39% 61%
MJJ 2015 3% 40% 57%
JJA 2015 7% 40% 53%
JAS 2015 11% 43% 46%

 

WHAT DO THE MODELS PREDICT?

Screen Shot 2014-11-21 at 12.34.31 PM

 MODEL SCORECARD

26 MODELS ARE REPRESENTED ABOVE, OF THOSE MODELS:

22 of 26 SHOW AN EL NINO THIS WINTER (85%)

18 of 26 SHOW A WEAK EL NINO EVENT (69%)

4 of 26 SHOW A MODERATE EL NINO EVENT (15%)

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 WHAT KIND OF EL NINO?

WEAK, MODERATE OR STRONG

EL NINO THIS WINTER?

Screen Shot 2014-10-09 at 12.22.44 PM 

 

El Nino affects the economy all over the globe and you would be surprised to see how much impact it will have on your wallet this winter. From home heating costs and gas prices to eating salmon the prices will change based on the impact of El Nino on you. You have included over 10 key industries that will see prices either go up or down the next 6 months so be ready to either save or lose money.

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Our forecast is leaning to a weak to maybe low end moderate El Nino this winter and our target is a strong El Nino indicated by the chart below.  It's still early in the game, 1-3 months away from a real outcome but the signs are starting to surface.  We'll be updating every 1-2 weeks so check back for more info as we get closer to El Nino 2014-2015. 

Compare the Climate Prediction Center's Winter Outlook vs. The Farmer's Almanac vs. Liveweatherblogs for snow totals temps and more.

 

EL NINO MODOKI 2014?

WHAT IS IT & WHAT ARE THE TELECONNECTIONS

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YOUR HOMETOWN WINTER OUTLOOK

200 Cities with Snow Days, Snowfall, Temps, Extreme Winter Weather

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YOUR HOMETOWN WINTER OUTLOOK (CANADA)

50 Cities with Snow Days, Snowfall, Temps, El Nino

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EL NINO ECONOMIC IMPACT ON YOU!

State breakdown on Gas Prices, Heating Bills, Groceries

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YOUR STATE WINTER OUTLOOK

Many smaller cities are in this outlook, Snow Days, Temps

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SKI AREA WINTER OUTLOOKS

 300 Ski areas for Snowfall, Temps by Month, El Nino Snow Forecast

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EL NINO WATCH UPDATE 2014-2015

Is this El Nino a Fake? The chances have dropped in August

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DISASTER RISK IS UP FOR THE U.S.A !

Check out the risk for your town and state

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WHAT TO EXPECT WITH THIS EL NINO?

 (What to Expect)

November

--Cold shots of air in mid November Midwest and East, Rain in SoCal late month

--Desert SW storms arrive off a developing active southern jet late month.

--The Southwest, Alaska & Hawaii are near normal as is New England.

 

Winter 2014 (What to Expect)

--Near Normal temps in the Midwest and East, warmer in the Southeast.

--Cooler in the Southwest and West Coast, Snowy weather in the West & Mid Atlantic.

 

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Arnold
Arnold
I assume that the forecast for Shasta will be largely true for Mt.Ashland too. Actually, I had intended to write Mt. Ashland. If Howard Prairie is going to get that much snow, I assume Mt. Ashland certainly will too and probably much more. Last winter when it was cold enough to snow, it was dry. When moisture finally arrived in January 2014 it was too mild for snow. Our water season Sept. to April got around 14" of precipitation in Medrord which is not that far off the normal but it fell in the "wrong" form for irrigation purposes. We are in a severe drought area but that is largely due to 2013 being so dry. Since the start of this year, Medford is actually ahead of normal.
5 months ago
robweather
robweather
Arnold we are updating info so The Portland one has to be changed to match the other info. I see it wet and cool for a good portion of Southern Oregon. I'll get to Mt. Shasta soon. Thanks for coming to the website.
5 months ago
Arnold
Arnold
I live in southern Oregon near Ashland and depend on irrigation availability. Your most recent el nino update by state shows Oregon getting a wet and cooler than average winter with the Howard Prairie Dam watershed receiving nearly 188" of snow, 50% above average. However, your separate Portland, OR forecast speaks of drier and warmer conditions with less snow up there. Could you tell me what you see for this area and also for snow conditions on Mt. Shasta. It got nothing in the last winter, a first.
5 months ago
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