AUGUST 30, 2014 UPDATE NEW INFO
Here we are in Mid August and El Nino is playing a "look at me again game" as a piece of the Kelvin Wave from earlier this summer makes a run for warmer Pacific El Nino based waters. Back in June and July ocean-atmosphere processes have consumed most of the warm water in the eastern equatorial Pacific from downwelling. This pool of water headed west but feed itself back into the western equatorial Pacific to bring back a mini surge in El Nino in the coming months. What does this all mean? Mother Nature may be playing the comeback game after a two month downside away from El Nino chances. The current risk for El Nino this fall and winter is at about 73% on the American Outlook, 50% from the Aussie Mets and we here at liveweatherblogs.com sit in the 70%-75% range.
The ocean temperatures at the top of the first few hundred feet is on the rise, yet another sign of El Nino in the near future. We still don't have all the pieces of the El Nino puzzle but some are starting to emerge for a better outlook. Once you see the orange water temps you can bet on this trending to an El Nino summer, fall and winter. El Nino regions are divided into four groups where we measure the ocean temps in different parts of the Pacific Ocean to see which way they are trending over a period of three months. If you get the ocean to sit in a three month period of +0.5c above normal El Nino has begun. We are getting close to that period this late summer to early fall.
The extent of El Niño’s strength won’t be known until September or maybe even October. But based on several interesting signals, in the form of mammals, birds, and fish showing up where they don’t typically belong, it’s looking as though this El Niño is going to be a very powerful event.
The birds, fish and mammels of the Pacific are already heading to the warmer waters and they know the ocean better than the models we use to predict El Nino's.
GET OUR LONG RANGE FORECASTS
OUR EL NINO BLOGS
MID AUGUST 2014 UPDATE
↑EL NINO IS 70%-73% ↑
|3 Month period||La Niña||Neutral||El Niño|
WHAT KIND OF EL NINO?
The diagram would indicate the modeling and future forecasts 6 months ahead outstrip the actual data. This graph shows us that this has been an occasional problem since 1985 and an increased problem since 1997. Some would argue that the early signs of climate change are making it tougher and tougher to detect a true El Nino more than 3 months away. If this is true than the 66% chance on the model may be off once again. We are sticking with an El Nino this winter for several reasons. From a statitical standpoint we are due for a moderate to perhaps strong El Nino.
Our forecast is leaning to a moderate to strong El Nino this winter and our target is a strong El Nino indicated by the chart below. It's still early in the game, 1-3 months away from a real outcome but the signs are starting to surface. We'll be updating every 1-2 weeks so check back for more info as we get closer to El Nino 2014-2015.
WHAT IS OUR FORECAST?
WHICH ANALOG YEARS DO WE SEE THAT
LOOK LIKE THE 2014-15 WINTER AHEAD?
WHAT TO EXPECT WITH THIS EL NINO?
Summer 2014 (What to expect)
--Hot summer across the Southwest, TX, California & Pacific Northwest
--Cool to near normal temps for the Midwest in August
--The East Coast gets HOT in later August & the rain starts to cut-off by mid month
--New England stays near normal for August
--A few tropical systems develop in August, 2 hurricanes
Fall 2014 (What to Expect)
--A mild fall in the East and South, Cooler early in the Midwest & Pacific NW.
--The Southwest, Alaska & Hawaii are near normal as is New England
Winter 2014 (What to Expect)
--Near Normal temps in the Midwest and East, warmer in the Southeast.
--Cooler in the Southwest and West Coast, Snowy weather in the West & Mid Atlantic
SEPTEMBER & OCTOBER
Snow in Septemer in the Dakotas/Minnesota
Hurricane along the East Coast in October