SEPTEMBER 22, 2014 UPDATE
Here we are in late September and El Nino is playing a "look at me again game" as a piece of the Kelvin Wave from earlier this summer makes a run for warmer Pacific El Nino based waters (+5 to +7f). Will this winter be BAD? How much snow will I get?
Back in June and July ocean-atmosphere processes have consumed most of the warm water in the eastern equatorial Pacific from downwelling. The North Pacific is warming fast and we are seeing Tuna and yellowfish the furthest north they have ever been. We here are liveweatherblogs.com feel very confident of a weak to maybe a low end moderate El Nino this winter in North America.
This pool of water from the Kelvin Wave headed west but feed itself back into the western equatorial Pacific to bring back a mini surge in El Nino in the coming months. What does this all mean? Mother Nature may be playing the comeback game after a two month downside away from El Nino chances.
The current risk for El Nino this fall and winter is at about 72% on the American Outlook, 50% from the Aussie Mets and we here at liveweatherblogs.com sit in the 75% range. Our Winter Outlook has over 400 cities large and small and all 50 state outlooks...so check it out. In the outlooks we have expected snow days, Avg. Snowfall, worst and best winters for snow and of course our forecast for snowfall amounts in the winter ahead. We also include temps month to month throughout the winter. If you live in a small city or need resort winter outlook head over to the Winter Outlook by State, that includes much more detail for non urban areas.
|Season||La Niña||Neutral||El Niño|
|NDJ 2014 (Winter)||~0%||28%||72%|
|DJF 2014 (Winter)||~0%||28%||72%|
|JFM 2015 (Winter)||~0%||28%||72%|
El Nino affects the economy all over the globe and you would be surprised to see how much impact it will have on your wallet this winter. From home heating costs and gas prices to eating salmon the prices will change based on the impact of El Nino on you. You have included over 10 key industries that will see prices either go up or down the next 6 months so be ready to either save or lose money.
WHAT KIND OF EL NINO?
The diagram would indicate the modeling and future forecasts 6 months ahead outstrip the actual data. This graph shows us that this has been an occasional problem since 1985 and an increased problem since 1997. Some would argue that the early signs of climate change are making it tougher and tougher to detect a true El Nino more than 3 months away. If this is true than the 66% chance on the model may be off once again. We are sticking with an El Nino this winter for several reasons. From a statitical standpoint we are due for a moderate to perhaps strong El Nino.
Our forecast is leaning to a weak to maybe low end moderate El Nino this winter and our target is a strong El Nino indicated by the chart below. It's still early in the game, 1-3 months away from a real outcome but the signs are starting to surface. We'll be updating every 1-2 weeks so check back for more info as we get closer to El Nino 2014-2015.
WHAT IS OUR FORECAST?
WHAT TO EXPECT WITH THIS EL NINO?
Fall 2014 (What to Expect)
--A mild fall in the East and South, Cooler early in the Midwest & Pacific NW.
--The Southwest, Alaska & Hawaii are near normal as is New England.
Winter 2014 (What to Expect)
--Near Normal temps in the Midwest and East, warmer in the Southeast.
--Cooler in the Southwest and West Coast, Snowy weather in the West & Mid Atlantic.
Snow in Early October
Dakotas and Northern Minnesota
Hurricane along the East Coast in October