This may be the very last snow threat and we all hope it delivers tones of snow. Let's see what the model runs tell us. I will update all model runs, if I miss any please post it so we could all read them...
Photos section has the snow map.
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Looking to next winter, as of right now, the ENSO looks to level off around October- November. That would mean a moderate El Nino for us, which spells a wetter than normal winter. Still, a lot of time to go.
Snow is falling here in Oley, Pa! Pretty awesome. Temp is 35 and continues to fall . @sweitskier- gotta' finish this winter season until the end; it certainly deserves it. Plus , I am rooting for Eric to get 70 inches this year! Maybe there will be a surprise for him tomm.! This will be the end of winter officially. Next year could be a doozy! I will be back for that and for hurricanes if we get any.
Hey Tony, sleet is starting to mix in as upper and mid levels begin to cool. I am in eastern Berks county, Pa. Surface temp. is 43. If precip. can stay back some, there is a shot at what the NAM is projecting. Will be interesting to see.
Yea, temps are too warm. It would have to get supercold, superfast, and stay for a few days. It's April; it won't happen. @Armando- "Rain is so vague." Great comment. It is blah, especially when it is a cold rain because you think, man, this should be snow!
Hey guys yeah the Euro is all in with a cold outbreak which is not out of the question. Just crazy to see the snowfall output on the 00z Euro from last night was crazy itself...Joe B might be onto something as we start to see the -EPO start to come back into play along with the MJO its not impossible to see some record cold with that setup. We shall see winter still might be wanting one last run at it but yes Armando the surface temps and 850 mb temps are not favorable but we'll see I kind of just want Spring already lol.
You beat me to it Armando! Yes, there is even a - tilted trough in the East! Ha. Plus, a strong storm hit Japan today! Might as well be crazy- the weather sure is. A good foot of snow next week easily lol. Storm will ride up the coast.
Hey boys, unless next week takes a major dip in temps, its over. Its been a great run and its funny I'm still not sure what I like better, the 2009-10 winter where we had 3 major storms to make up the bulk of the precip, or many more snow events but no bombs like this winter, anyway its been a pleasure working with a lot of you guys. So unless it changes this will be my last writing until next winter. Make sure all of you enjoy your summer and stay safe, I will be doing a lot of golfing so yes I am happy the warm weather may finally be here for good. Have a great spring and summer.
Long story short next year is going to be fun for sure with the -PDO/-APO combo as well as a favorable ENSO created from our primarily -EPO this year creating very cold SST out in the northwest. Don't even get me started with the potential record breaking el nino that should keep the sub tropical jet very active so next year is something to really look forward to. For now lets enjoy our 60's and watch some NCAA this weekend. As much as I love snow, baseball weather has got to be my 2nd favorite. Go Yanks haha
Hey guys, Armando has a point. The models show that trough in the East and a low out to sea. However, if we get a piece of energy left over at the base of the trough, it could ride up and give us something. I doubt it though. I was thinking that maybe the temps would stay lower with the rain and clouds, but when the clouds break, the temp goes quickly to the 60's. Oh well. If we do see a few flakes, it would be just ridiculous! I would not jump the gun with next winter though. The El Nino will weaken by the time next winter rolls around. For us to have lots of snow, we need a moderate - weak El Nino. We may get that still. I read that the current Kelvin Wave is record-breaking!
That 50/50 block on the euro is something to really watch out for. It will not only provide blocking for the storm to come up the coast and also release much needed cold air southward so yeah the models are a little lost right now with the northwest track so we will see when they will correct becasue I think they will.
Thanks Armando. I saw that too. Don't buy into the northwest track at all. Way too early for details. Rain and clouds are keeping temps. down. It is 42 and raining in Eastern Berks. As you go southeast, it is more of the same. Any idea when the cold air is poised to return?
Going to be tough but we can definitely pull it off all signs are hinting towards enough cold air to support some snow so we will have to see. Remember timing is key if you want spring snow but we have a lot of time so the models might be confused out of their minds we just don't know. But something to keep an eye on for sure in the coming days...
@Wales- Thanks for the earlier complement . The info. you supply is just as important as anybody else's. You are right about the upcoming El Niño; in fact, I will say these 2 winters will be historic when combined. @weatherwizard- Brazilian meteograms? JB is pulling out all the stops, isn't he? Lol.
Thanks guys, you know whats great about this, the fact yhat yes we are tracking this late in the season, and If next winter with the enhanced EL-NINO, is as wild as people are saying it could be a great back to back winter period
@Armando...oh yeah I hope we get more than dusting. Look if we get some fresh chilly air and the 850's are below freezing, it could happen. We could get a snowstorm. We need a perfect track and a strong low! Let's see what happens I'm not that hyped but it is April ad we are still tracking that to me is amazing!
Armando I said we could get some snow on Monday (for yesterday) didn't i?i said that last week. I was skeptical though for sure. Scroll down on the comment... Wales of course we need you. You bring plenty of good info just like the rest of us!
@ballz97- You are right about one thing- it is a pipe dream to get snow in April, but it has happened and, in some cases, with huge results. You can't rule anything out just yet. Plus, this setup is entirely different. We don't have to worry about suppression or anything like that; we do have to worry about temps. at all levels of the atmosphere because it is....uh, well, April. You are not a downer; you are just being realistic. Everyone appreciates that. Heck, odds are fairly against this from happening. However, if it does, then it would be truly amazing. That's what weather junkies live for- the amazing!
@Wales- I would not lose sleep over this, so don't worry about tracking and posting just yet. When we get to Saturday/ Sunday, if this is still on the table, then we start really watching model runs, etc..
Guys are you talking 8 to 10 days from now, Oh Man would I love to see it go out with a bang, but I am still catching up on sleep from the last time, so I am going to check in every once and a while, anyway you definitely do not need me, with Armando, Nick, Tony, Joe, and the rest of the knowledgeable respectful guys
The real key to this whole setup is the block IMO. The major reason is that the atmosphere is warming at all levels now. The cold must be locked in and the block must keep it that way. This event is many days away. One thing in our favor of keeping temps. down a bit this week is the cloud cover and chances for rain/showers from Wed. through Friday. That is key. If you want to see snow, then we can't have 4-5 days of 60's-70's preceding it. Remember, the cold air that is coming next week will really have to be strong, so it needs to remain on the chilly side the rest of this week (40's- low 50's for highs). Watch the temperatures the rest of this week. I had frost on my windshield this morning !
Hey so Armando it's still cold. I have some optimism that we could get at dusting within a week or two! All we need is some cold air which builds pretty well during nightime. So we need a system with the right track and strong enough to make some cold air especially at night. Maybe if the system moved in during the day and stalled at night that would probably work too. Dates to watch April 6-10
Hey guys been busy with work and not really excited about late march but long Islas got 6 inches of snow in Islip this morning. Also we got some good mood flakes here in NYC this morning but nothing major. Cool to see hopefully we get more shot at a snow event before te 10th of April kinda interesting still tracking and it's April tomorrow! Hahahaha ttyl everybody have a great week!
Great points Armando and Nick! To sum it up then, the big questions are- Will it be cold enough? Will the blocking hold on? There is no question about there being a storm. I will not talk about next winter because I don't want to jinx it! Lol. Plus, how long will the El Nino last? Can't be sure about that yet.
I totally agree Joe and Armando....The el nino spark will keep the sub tropical jet streaming moisture to the Gulf and it's coming more and more likely that Japan will get hit with a storm around the 3rd which would correlate to a storm for us in East around the 10th...Got to love how the AO relaxes towards positive and plus has anyone see the Euro weeklies suggesting the Being Sea ridge to get stronger and stronger as we go into April. That gets me thinking at the storm in East Asia will have to climb over that ridge and ride the jet stream winds which we will ave as the trough starts to dig further south from a progressive stage to not perfect but better than progressive. So adding into all that the PNA starts to go very positive around the 6-10th of April. Also, looking more into the Euro weeklies which have been miuch better than the CFS v2 forecasts are now starting to show HUGE high in Eastern Canada trying to ride over ridges and plant themselves in an ideal spot for blocking and creates very impressive 50/50 blocks. Surface currents from the Ocean Forecasting models are suggesting a build up of not only higher SST but also high sea current velocity that would strengthen anything that would come up the coast. It's going to be a very tricky forecast in where the blocking sets up or if we will have blocking. But all I know is going into April models are hinting towards 50-75% of the country with below average temps around the 10th. So timing and how cold it will actually get dictates if we will see 1 last snowstorm but we can pull this off. I am liking how the epo maintains it's negative phase and not to mention the MJO going into phase 3. Not to get into long range but the MJO might even go towards phase 4/5 as we get longer into April so I really can guarantee immediate warmth right after this storm as history has it phases 3/4/5 of the MJO correlate to below avg temps for the Eastern U.S. so the Euro weeklies might be onto something with a cold outbreak in the middle of April but we shall see. The GFS from last night had an interesting setup for the 10th storm and it just shows you that with bad timing and weak blocking this storm will go right up the Apps but the Euro was more east but still enough warm air invasion that it's mainly rain. It's going to be close! Hope that helps everyone...And if this storm doesn't pan out I think we all would like some relief from all this cold. Then, don't even get me started with next winter...All I can say right now is it looks EPIC with a -PDO/-AMO and a super el nino it should be FUN!
We will have to see because the pattern will start to relax next week before getting ramped up again the following week around the 10th as the -epo kicks in the storm in East Asia so the cold air might be enough to hold snow. It's gonna be all about timing with this storm as it always is when you want snow in April. At least we won't see the storm get suppressed lol if it does I think i'll go insane but doubtful that it will. Still amazing how many storms actually were suppressed in March of all months haha. Very long way out but the h5 graphics on the 12z GFS looked pretty good as the ul cuts off pretty early which would allow the storm to throw back Atlantic moisture but we shall see. It can snow in April just go back to the April Fools day blizzard in 1997...33" in Worcester,MA which is their single largest snowstorm on record so yea I'd be fine wit one last chance at snow lol.
Thanks Nick. Just my problem is that when you don't have cold air, you don't have snow. We really don't have much to work with, plus the fact that it'll be april. If its daytime, forget about it. But whatever... Guess we'll see. I just want warm honestly.
Eric, I know it's not a favorable setup especially this time of the year backend snow is kind of hard but we can't disregard the NAM continuing to plot out a few inches for the Lehigh Valley and even more for the Poconos. It all depends on how fast the cold front Sun. night gets in here. Also, how long does the storm front actually stall out. I am not saying we'll get 3" of snow but an inch is possible especially with how large the storm actually is so enhanced precip could be the case. We shall see! Also, yes that's a very good sign Joe because all year because of the very -EPO it has caused East Asia to be very stormy and all year a storm has effected Japan and 6-10 days down the road its hitting us so the 10th is def. a potential we will see how much cold air stays behind.
More bizarre weather in the long range. A strong storm will iimpact Japan around April 3. You know what that means.... With MJO in phase 3, PNA progged to go +, NAO also staying - , and this El Nino-ish effect surfacing, we may be in store for someting interesting around April 10.
The fact that you guys are talking about backend snow and in April... I just don't see anything happening. Its not a good setup buf I do agree with Joe on one thing. ALOT of rain is coming in the next few weeks.
Backend snows are possible here, guys, but I wouldn't get too excited. Like Armando said, they rarely work out around here. By the time the cold air rushes in, most of the precip will be gone or it will be light. The cold air coming in tends to either be too late or dry everything out quickly. Who knows, with this deep, bowling ball setup, stalled front, and slow moving low, the cold may catch the precip. in time and give us something. We will probably get a couple inches now that I said that! Crazy pattern. As far as April 4-6 goes, all the cold air is way up in Canada during that time frame. Cmc still has something; GFS takes the moisture out to sea ( no surprise). I see lots of rain coming the next 2-3 weeks.
Yes, def. needs to be watched. The 18z NAM continues the threat for a narrow band of heavy snow in the Susquehanna Valley and that could easily shift west or east so a period of wet snow is possible here closer to the city and maybe even some more significant snow out towards Williamsport/State College. As we see the front stall out sometime from Saturday-Sun night a cold front Sun night will rush in to try to change the rain into wet snow so tricky forecast but we'll see.
Armando, I agree with you that this thing def needs to be watched, later Sunday into Monday. 12z NAM had the snow in the Hudson Valley and Western New England. So if snow is possible it seems like it could setup anywhere from Harrisburg through southern New England as the ULL closes. Probably only a 50-100 mile wide band of snow, but it will be heavy if it does happen.
18z NAM is showing snow for Western Delaware Valley, and much of East Central PA, Sunday Night into Monday. Very Interesting. Shows Potentially 6+ inches from Lancaster NNE through Scranton. ULL appears to catch up with surface low and sit off the Jersey coast for approx 12 hr period.
Yeah the cmc still has it sort of just not as organized as yesterday I'm losing hope as the real arctic air is several hundred miles away and it's hard to come down with the strong late march early April sun as that cold air modifies and Great Lakes ice starts melting!
So what do you guys think can we get one last storm of the year? I'd say it'll e tough but it could happen. The way it's been going this could always be a huge storm. Crazy global climate pattern we're in. Let's see what happens. I'm kinda over it but it could happen. Joe had a good point saying that warmth early next week should really take over in all layers at one point.
Going to be tough with all this warmth coming for days. I can see cold air being there but not at all layers. We will see. Lots of rain coming, guys. Weekend washout. Man, if the cold air was still around, this would be a significant winter storm.